Tipsheet

New Poll: Is Florida Slipping Away?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  August 16, 2016 4:01 PM

A new Monmouth survey -- released by a respected pollster cheered by the Trump campaign for its Iowa numbers last month -- spells deep trouble for the brash billionaire in the must-win state of Florida. Put simply, Donald Trump does not have any realistic path to victory (especially with erstwhile delusions bursting all around him) without the Sunshine State. According to the fresh data, Hillary Clinton has opened up a nine-point lead in the country's most populous swing state:

Among Sunshine State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 39% back Trump. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 5% who are undecided. Among self-identified Democrats, 92% support Clinton while 4% choose Trump and just 3% back a third party candidate. Trump has less support among his own party base, with 79% of Republicans who back their nominee, compared to 12% who support Clinton and 5% who back another candidate. Clinton leads Trump among independents by 47% to 30%, with 11% supporting Johnson and 2% backing Stein. Clinton has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, garnering 69% of this group’s vote to 19% for Trump...Clinton’s 50 point lead among non-white voters is similar to Barack Obama’s advantage over Mitt Romney with this group four years ago (49 points according to the 2012 Florida exit poll). Trump’s 14 point lead among white voters is smaller than Romney’s 24 point win with this group. This difference is due mainly to a widening gender gap. Trump is doing somewhat better than Romney did among white men (+40 points compared to +32), but much worse among white women (-10 points compared to +17).

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Bottom line:

What a...complete non-surprise. This phenomenon is precisely what we warned about throughout the primary.  The data was all sitting in plain sight; many Republicans chose not to look at it, or take it seriously.  Trump has consistently performed as poorly as Romney with voters of color (or worse), while underperforming the most recent GOP nominee with whites.  White women are perpetually one of his biggest problems.  That's a recipe for a decisive November loss.  Unpopular Hillary Clinton's favorability is 14 points underwater in Florida, yet she's enjoying a comfortable lead because Trump's deficit on the same metric is 21 points.  If you average the two Florida surveys released this week, Hillary is ahead by seven.  In a four-way race.  Yikes.

In the state's important US Senate race, Marco Rubio is running 14 to 20 points ahead of Trump, depending on his hypothetical opponent.  Against congenital liar and privileged layabout Patrick Murphy, Rubio leads by five points.  Against crazy person and accused wife-batterer Alan Grayson, he holds a double-digit lead.  The incumbent is sitting at (+7) on favorability and (+8) on job approval.  Most voters don't know or care about the fact that he's tepidly -- very tepidly -- endorsed Trump.  Rubio has maintained a consistent but modest advantage in this contest since jumping back into the race.  As for the national picture, the latest round of NBC/Marist/WSJ battleground surveys show Clinton sweeping all seven states polled:

Those top three margins tell you all you need to know about why well-funded elements of Hillaryworld are packing up their things and leaving Colorado, Virginia (where Hillary leads by 14 in another new poll), and Pennsylvania (a crucial state for Trump).  Absent a massive shake-up, they're in the bag.  NBC's new national poll shows Clinton up by nine, which mirrors her average lead over the series' last three installations.  As ever, she's not popular.  He's worse:

Perhaps the Trump campaign might consider spending more than zero dollars on television advertising? She's investing tens of millions to make marginal gains in improving her poor image, while pinning down his historically bad image. It's working. Parting thought: Is the GOP's House majority in peril?