It’s a conflict that seems like it will last forever. The Ukraine War, which reached a new level of intensity in 2022 when Russia invaded the country, has been in a continuous stalemate: the Russians lack the military resources or capability to take over the entire country, and the Ukrainians face a similar dilemma in retaking the territory seized at the start of the invasion. Since then, Russia’s officer corps has been decimated, and its military’s credibility shredded. It’s become a meat grinder, and this study showing Russian soldiers’ life expectancy on the frontlines of this war is incredible.
If you’d guess an hour, that’s already too much. The average Russian recruit lasts 20 minutes on the frontlines in Ukraine (via NY Post):
New Russian recruits have a life expectancy of just 20 to 35 minutes in combat in Ukraine — showing how quickly Vladimir Putin’s troops are falling victim to drone warfare, according to chilling reports from Moscow.
Once a soldier is signed up to fight, he can expect to live for just 10 days to three weeks — from arrival at the training ground to death in combat, according to historian Peter Frankopan in an op-ed for Foreign Policy, citing Russian military bloggers.
[…]
In late 2025, Russian officials claimed they had recruited more than 420,000 new soldiers for year-long military contracts, but even state media admits those numbers are down some 30% this year.
According to military bloggers, Russia still recruits roughly 800 to 1,000 new voluntary contract soldiers per day, with many of them rushed through just a handful of days of combat training.
Average monthly casualties are now running at more than 30,000, with various Western sources putting the total Russian casualties at more than 1 million since the start of the war in February 2022.
Russia — which has a population of about 143 million — is now suffering eight casualties for every one lost by Ukraine, according to estimates cited by Frankopan.
[…]
The extremely high Russian casualty rate is blamed on the astonishing rise in military drones, which have become Ukraine’s most effective weapons.
Just staggering.
