All Eyes on Georgia and Alabama Tonight

Cam already posted a good preview about what’s happening tonight, but let’s review some of the major races. Republicans are facing competitive runoffs in Alabama and Georgia for Senate and governor seats. Rep. Barry Moore is running against newcomer and former Navy SEAL James Hudson. Moore has Trump’s endorsement, but Hudson has been climbing in the polls. One survey showed Hudson beating Moore by five points.

In the Peach State, Rep. Mike Collins, who was already favored to secure the runoff, received a boost with Trump’s endorsement. In the gubernatorial race, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones received endorsements from Trump and term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp. The winner of that contest will face Democrat and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who has caused significant concern among state Democrats due to her baggage. Polls close at 7 PM in Georgia and 8pm in Alabama (via Decision Desk):

Collins led Dooley about 40%-30% in the May 19 primary vote, and his edge seems more likely than not to hold up in the runoff. An average of four runoff polls conducted since late May found Collins leading Dooley by 11 percentage points, 52%-41%. However, the last poll from InsiderAdvantage showed a much closer race, so a Dooley surprise can’t be ruled out.
In some ways, it’s surprising that Trump waited so long to endorse Collins. Dooley is a close ally of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who earned Trump’s enmity after the 2020 presidential election by not supporting Trump’s unfounded claims that the Georgia result was stolen from him. Collins has positioned himself as a strongly MAGA-aligned candidate, whereas Dooley has focused more on portraying himself as a conservative outsider willing to take on Washington. Following Trump’s endorsement, Dooley argued that Collins cannot defeat Ossoff, meaning a runoff vote for Collins was effectively a vote for Ossoff.
Another sign that Dooley is an underdog is the lack of outside backing he has received from Kemp’s network in the runoff. The Kemp-affiliated Hardworking Americans Inc. spent $4.0 million in the primary to help Dooley advance to the runoff, but has spent just $175,000 since. Another group, Georgia Values, has spent $845,000 against Collins. If Dooley comes up just short, the decrease in outside support will loom large.
Speaking of Kemp, he weighed in on Georgia’s Republican primary runoff for governor on Sunday evening. The term-limited incumbent endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the race to succeed him, snubbing billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson. Jones, who led about 38%-33% over Jackson in the primary vote on May 19, now has endorsements from both Trump and the sitting governor.
Yet it remains to be seen if support from different wings of the GOP will be enough for Jones to overcome Jackson’s outsider bid. In five surveys conducted since the primary, Jones and Jackson are effectively tied at around 45%.
The two most recent surveys from Cygnal and InsiderAdvantage do suggest Jackson may have moved ahead of Jones, at least before Kemp’s endorsement. Cygnal’s analysis suggests that Jackson might have more appeal among more on-the-fence voters, many of whom backed the less MAGA-inclined candidates who won more than a quarter of the primary vote — Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (15%) and Attorney General Chris Carr (12%).
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Another Trump-backed candidate is battling to win Alabama’s Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat left open by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor. In the May 19 primary vote, Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore led former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson 39%-26%, seemingly making him the favorite to win the GOP nod.
However, the limited polling we have points to a race that is very much up for grabs. Tellingly, the final two surveys of the race — the only ones conducted in June — found Moore ahead by 9 points (co/efficient) or Hudson ahead by 5 points (Strategy Management).
[…]
To close out the campaign, the pro-Hudson Alabama Conservatives group has sparked a fight over Moore’s military service record. The outfit has run an ad claiming that Moore perpetrated stolen valor by claiming he had served in combat, saying he had been in “combat boots.” The Pro-Moore Alabama Freedom Fund countered with its own ad claiming that Hudson was lying and that Moore never claimed to have served in combat. But Moore may have further amplified the issue by threatening to sue multiple media outlets for even asking questions about his service record.
The stakes are certainly high, as the GOP runoff winner will very likely be the next senator from firmly red Alabama. Democrats have their own primary runoff between attorney Everett Wess and criminal justice advocate Dakarai Larriett, but either Democrat will be a clear underdog in November.