Virginia Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger and her allies in Richmond believed they could easily win on this referendum, which should have been struck down by the courts, but that’s another issue. While the Old Dominion is much bluer than it was in the mid-2000s, it’s not California. And there are signs of a potential pushback as Virginia Democrats have pushed forward with an aggressive agenda filled with tax hikes on everything.
So, the new map that’s insanely gerrymandered in the Democrats’ favor is on life support, and NBC News was there to deliver the update:
Imagine if Republicans were actually doing…anything to fight the onslaught of propaganda ads from the pro-gerrymandering side https://t.co/kRe8466iTL
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) March 23, 2026
Some supporters of the Virginia referendum acknowledge the challenge of convincing voters to back a gerrymandered map when Democrats, who several years ago backed the formation of the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission, have criticized Republicans for similar moves.
Virginia voters are also not accustomed to going to the polls in April, when Democrats scheduled the special election, making turnout particularly unpredictable.
And recent polling showing mixed views of the ballot referendum and some favorable early voting numbers for Republicans has only added to Democrats’ anxieties.
“It’s not a done deal by any means,” said Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va. “We have to effectively make the case that even though this seems unfair in Virginia, it’s totally fair for America, for those of us who believe that taking back the House is the most significant thing we can do to stop Donald Trump.”
[…]
“It’s very easy to say, ‘Well, California just did this, and therefore the same thing is going to happen in Virginia. But that ignores the reality that Virginia is a purple state,” said one Democratic operative close to the campaign supporting the measure who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There’s a lot of factors you can’t control about who’s going to be an active participant in this election until the last minute. It’s a random April election. We’re talking about reaching voters who are taught to check out around this time of year and check back in the summer.”
The April election is the latest front in the unusually active mid-decade redistricting battle. The push in Virginia came in response to President Donald Trump pressuring GOP-led states to redraw their maps to shore up the party’s narrow House majority. Six states — including Texas, Missouri and North Carolina on the GOP side — enacted new maps last year, while the biggest Democratic counterattack came in California.
[…]
A Roanoke College poll of Virginia residents conducted in mid-February found that 62% supported the state’s current method of drawing congressional maps. Asked about the constitutional amendment, 44% said they’d vote to approve it, while 52% said they’d prefer to keep the current process.
A mid-January poll of Virginia registered voters from Christopher Newport University similarly found that 63% were in favor of the current map-drawing process. But this survey showed a slight majority, 51%, also backed the temporary constitutional amendment, while 43% opposed it.
Threading the needle of not completely dismissing the commission while pushing for a more partisan map represents a big hurdle for the referendum’s supporters — one underscored by the fact that some Democrats are aggressively opposed to the amendment.
“There’s a big group of people that don’t like Donald Trump — like me — that are worried about him stealing the midterms and ruining our democracy — like me — but who don’t think this is a smart way to fight back, or that we even need to do this in Virginia,” said Brian Cannon, a Democratic operative in Virginia who advocated for passage of the bipartisan redistricting commission.
Yeah, so there’s some trouble ahead. Also, always with the drama with these people. Look, the Democrats won the election, so they can push for this. I would if the GOP had somehow won, but you have to close. And right now, it's up in the air. The GOP should be more aggressive fighting this, however.
Today, Rs outran Trump by ~10% in the VA HD98 special - an anomalous result when the average special sees Dems outrun Kamala by ~12%.
— Ethan C7 (@ECaliberSeven) March 18, 2026
This result aligns with early data for VA’s April 21 redistricting referendum, which shows MUCH higher turnout in GOP areas than Dem ones atm. pic.twitter.com/aPbt8LuzVJ
ELECTION ALERT🚨: BIG GOP WIN: Republicans just flipped momentum in Virginia HD-98 special election!
— Officer Lew (@officer_Lew) March 18, 2026
Andrew Rice (R) crushes it with ~+25-29 point lead/margin in a district that leaned Sears +7 in November's election.
That's a massive ~22+ point swing toward the Republicans!… pic.twitter.com/lSp9GKyEf5
VA HD-98 special results now up on @StateNavigate https://t.co/8ecqyEHvXf
— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) March 18, 2026
Andrew Rice outperformed Trump by 10.1%. pic.twitter.com/UBbOaALBg1
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