New Jersey isn’t a red state. It’s not even purple. It’s a deep blue bastion, but some interesting trends have arisen in the Garden State despite it being ignored by national Republicans. In 2021, Republican gubernatorial Jack Ciattarelli came unusually close to unseating Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy. He only lost that race by a little over 80,000 votes without any outside help. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the state by only 5.9 percent, marking the lowest margin of victory for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.
There are many ways to skin the electoral cat, and with Trump reshaping the Republican Party—there are new voter blocs the GOP can pick up to win races. Scott Pressler, whose dogged voter registration campaign helped flip Pennsylvania for Trump, seems dead-set on helping Jersey Republicans make some noise for this upcoming gubernatorial election. Pressler has visited 10 of the state’s 21 counties, and his reception has been positive. If there were any reservations, it was territorial which is common in politics (via Politico):
In the few instances in recent history in which a Republican won statewide in New Jersey, voters have elected mainstream Republicans who are fiscally conservative and socially moderate. But Trump’s unexpectedly strong showing last year could indicate a shift among voters backing a more conservative agenda. The two leading candidates for the GOP nomination this year — Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea — have sought to emulate Trump and his policies.
“The way that I look at it is, New Jersey has been voting blue for so long, and the definition of insanity is you’re repeating the same thing over and over, and you’re not having success,” Presler, who does not endorse in the primary, said. “So if there was ever a year to try something new, especially after our big win in 2024, I think this is it. … New Jersey: What have you got to lose? Try something new.”
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Presler spending so much time in New Jersey “signals to a lot of people that we’re taking 2025 very seriously,” said Hunterdon County Republican Committee Chair Gabe Plumer.
And while Presler’s voter registrations tactics could help Republicans close the gap that Democrats have held in the state, it’s his persona that they see as just as much of a value add to build off Republicans’ enthusiasm from last year.
Presler, whom New Jersey Republican Party Executive Director Kennith Gonzalez described as “a load of excitement” and “such a positive person,” knows how to draw a crowd — both in person and online. Ahead of his voter registration training on a Saturday morning in late February at a VFW hall in Union County, a crowd of attendees lined up for a chance to meet him and take selfies. The same went for after his talk, when he stuck around well after it wrapped to make sure everyone got the chance to speak with him.
During his presentation, which drew more than 200 people, Presler cracked jokes as he went through how to fill out a voter registration form, like how if he met former President Joe Biden, he thinks “he would go in and sniff my hair.”
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With months to go until the primary, it’s still too early to see exactly what impact Presler will have on Republicans’ turnout in the closed June primary, where only registered members of the party may cast a ballot. But Republicans are emboldened by their registration gains — and Democrats’ decline — even before Presler came in. As of March 1, Democrats had around 834,000 more registered voters compared to Republicans. At the same point in 2021, Democrats had an advantage greater than 1 million. And since the beginning of the year, Democratic registrations dropped by around 90,000 while Republicans went down by 30,000, due in part to voter roll cleanup. With more than 2 million unaffiliated voters in the state, Republicans are hopeful they can overcome that Democratic advantage.
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“If there’s a Democrat Governor Murphy spy in here, I want to make something exceptionally, exceptionally clear,” Presler said to the crowd. “If you cheat … you will be caught and you will be prosecuted.”
Pressler is also just as aggressive in his advocacy for election integrity, which resonates with GOP voters. He plans to make Pennsylvania the new Florida, regarding the reliability of electoral delivery, as the Sunshine State for Republicans. Taking on the Democratic machines in Jersey will be a test.
Let’s see if he can smash them.
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