Joe Biden will go to his grave thinking if he’d stayed in the race, he would’ve beaten Trump. The slight wrinkle is that he feels he might not have been able to serve a full second term. That’s true—the United States would have ceased to exist, too. CNN’s Harry Enten took that claim and frankly put it through the meatgrinder, describing it as “flat-out bonkers.”
Why?
Biden trailed President-elect Donald J. Trump in all seven swing states. Trump would’ve smashed the blue wall handily and swept the Sun Belt. Biden led Trump a whopping zero days when he was at the top of the 2024 Democratic ticket. Trump was ahead of Biden in those swing states by 3 and 6 points. It wouldn’t have been close. Biden’s support was collapsing in Northern Virginia. That development got buried since Biden dropped out in July, but it seemed to be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Based on the polling data, I categorize Biden's statement that he could have beaten Trump as "flat out bonkers."
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 8, 2025
Biden was well behind Trump when he dropped out. Biden never led in all of 2024. And no incumbent president who was anywhere near as unpopular as Biden has ever won. pic.twitter.com/lGk9h8pygU
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Biden also had a net negative 19-point approval rating heading into Election Day. No president has ever been re-elected with such atrocious approvals. Biden would likely have had a carbon copy of Kamala Harris’ dismal 2024 performance, though slightly worse, as Virginia likely would’ve flipped for Trump. That’s 325 electoral votes for Trump to Biden’s 213.
Again, a total landslide for the GOP. It’s not quite a 1980s-style beatdown, but a drubbing nonetheless.
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