It turned out to be a laughably wrong poll. Ann Selzer, who used to be credible, released a shock poll days before Election Day showing that Kamala Harris had taken the lead over Donald Trump. No one believed it. Not even Democrats did, I think. The state was Trump +18 in June. It swung to Harris +3 in October. We would’ve seen the groundswell if that were happening. It didn’t. Trump carried the state by 14 points.
Also, there were less-than-subtle hints that Democrats knew this poll would drop before the public did. Who leaked it? Gannett, the Des Moines Register’s publisher, wants to know that. They’ve launched an investigation. After the election, Selzer adds that the poll might have animated GOP voters in Iowa to turnout, leading to Trump handily taking the state. Ann, that’s not even remotely true (via Semafor):
Iowa according to Ann Selzer apparently pic.twitter.com/GTCIARM03C
— BeshearStan (inactive) (@BeshearStan) November 3, 2024
Political genius Ann Selzer appears confused over what the “R” and “D” letters refer to in polling cross tabs pic.twitter.com/R7iADsusbT
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) November 3, 2024
Gannett, the publishing chain that owns the Des Moines Register, has launched an investigation into the apparent leak of Ann Selzer’s bombshell Iowa poll, two people familiar with the matter confirmed to Semafor.
Selzer’s Iowa poll was publicly released by The Des Moines Register/Mediacom on the evening of Nov. 2, making nationwide news and giving Democrats what would turn out to be false hope by showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points in the state. (Trump ended up winning Iowa by 13 points.)
But roughly 45 minutes prior to the poll’s public release, a stray tweet predicted the poll’s findings. Its author said that Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, a Duke University alumnus, had mentioned the not-yet-released poll during a Duke Democrats meeting that day. (A spokesperson for Pritzker did not respond to an inquiry about the apparent leak.)
[…]
Now, Gannett is investigating how Pritzker and possibly other political actors could have learned of the poll early, and is reviewing employees’ emails, one of the sources said.
A Gannett spokesperson declined to comment on “internal matters.”
[…]
In her own article about the poll’s “big miss,” Selzer suggested that perhaps its findings served to “energize and activate Republican voters” ahead of Election Day. Reached by Semafor, she declined further comment Sunday.
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I still can’t believe the 47/44 split Selzer tried to sell here. Unless you’re doing whippets, even the most ardent liberal knew better.
Do we have a suppression ploy scheme getting busted? We’ll know soon.
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