Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is a dead man walking. Endless polls have him trailing Republican Tim Sheehy by a good margin, between six and eight points. Given how late it is in the race, one would conclude it’s time for Tester to start updating his resume. He’s not going down without a fight, but in a decidedly red state, Mr. Tester is leaning on his personal appeal and the hope that there will be enough voters splitting tickets to survive.
NBC News had a lengthy article about Tester’s plan. It’s hard to gauge since split-ticket voting is something of an oddity as we’ve become more polarized. Again, he’s hoping his ties to voters will earn him the trust he needs to hit the crease with an electorate that screams ‘death’ in Democratic politics. Tester has done a circuit of union town halls, where he’s touted his work in Washington in obtaining the necessary appropriations to give union workers much work in the state. It’s not a myth—these union voters like Tester. And yes, most are likely to vote for Trump next month. Tester knows this, but some folks will pull the lever for the embattled Montana Democrat. Tester is also hoping the abortion referendum can get him some votes to save his political career. We’ll see, but the more significant issue is what happens if Tester goes down.
The Republican takeover of the Senate is virtually a lock should that happen, but down-ticket—Tester’s demise could be the start of a long wilderness for local Democrats. Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) says Tester is the last Democrat standing in the state; he’s the face. A Tester loss would also mean a generational drought in a state that’s become redder with time (via NBC News):
Tim Combo arrived at the second-floor union hall of the Western States Carpenters in Butte covered in dust and grime from a day spent on the job Wednesday. Combo, a 27-year union carpenter, feels deeply that the election will directly affect his life — and he has made his choice.
“I came up here to vote for Jon Tester, and I am going to vote for Donald Trump, as well,” Combo said at the hall, where Tester was speaking.
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“Look, I’ve got my own brand here in the state, and it’s different than national Democrats,” he said in an interview. “I would have never been elected the first time or any other times if it had been the same as a national Democrat.”
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Tester, who twice voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges, has promised he could work with Trump and even listed issues on which they agree.
“We probably agree on the Second Amendment. We probably agree on the southern border. We, I mean, there’s a number of things, yes, yeah,” he said.
The pitch to union voters is one part of a Democratic strategy to make the Montana campaign as local as possible. Tester is making a concerted effort to rally the state’s significant Native American population, as well. Indigenous people are 7% of the population in Montana, the highest share in the U.S., but there are many challenges in getting reservation residents to the polls.
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Longtime Montana political operative and strategist Pepper Peterson called the Senate race “one for the political science books,” likening the shift he’s seeing in Montana to what he saw working with Democrats in Tennessee in the early 2000s. If Republicans win, Peterson said, “the Democrats are probably dead for 16 years in Montana or so, maybe longer.”
“Jon Tester is the linchpin. He’s the cornerstone of the entire Democratic Party in Montana,” Peterson said. “And if they lose him, then they’re just going to fade.”
Tester is much like outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). He hailed from a red state and held positions countering the national Democratic Party. Both men are more sensible than the party they’re affiliated with or used to be affiliated with—Manchin left the party this year. And that’s the point: Manchin could only hold out for so long. Eventually, he opted to leave public life. The personal appeal play can buy you time, but eventually, voters tend to align their interests with one party in elections. The only difference between Tester and Manchin is that the latter knew when to call it a day.
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