Here's the 'Hitchhiker's Guide' to Matt Gaetz's Plot to Remove Kevin McCarthy

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is filing a motion to vacate to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the stopgap measure that averted a government shutdown. Speaker McCarthy had to solicit Democrat votes to pass the continuing resolution, which will keep Congress afloat for another 45 days. The deal struck reportedly involved a separate vote on an aid package to Ukraine. There were no such funds allocated in the shutdown-averting spending bill passed yesterday (via NBC News):

Wow.@SpeakerMcCarthy made a side Ukraine deal with Democrats and didn’t tell House Republicans until after his Continuing Resolution passed.

More deceit. https://t.co/LC91laLyTp
— Matt Gaetz (@mattgaetz) October 1, 2023

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., said Sunday that he intends to file a motion to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week after Congress voted to avert a shutdown hours before the deadline.
"I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week," Gaetz said in an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “I think we need to rip off the band aid. I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy."
Gaetz also confirmed that he'll soon file a motion to vacate the speakership in an appearance on ABC News' "This Week," after the Senate and House on Saturday night voted to pass a short-term bill to keep the government funded through Nov. 17.
In response to Gaetz' announcement, McCarthy said, “That’s nothing new ... He’s tried to do that from the moment I ran for office ... Yes, I’ll survive. You know, this is personal with Matt.”

https://t.co/e8ECYirYhM pic.twitter.com/CnU3DEaz1p
— Matt Gaetz (@mattgaetz) October 1, 2023

House GOP members are seeking to quickly expel Gaetz if the ethics report comes back with findings of guilt.

Following threats to vacate McCarthy, one tells me “No one can stand him at this point. A smart guy without morals.”
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) October 1, 2023

Former Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) threatened John Boehner with this motion in 2015. Boehner decided to resign. In the early 20^th century, Speaker Joe Cannon faced a vacate motion since he was viewed as “too dictatorial.” In a bold move, Cannon put forward the proposal himself but got bailed out by Democrats, weakening his speakership irreparably. Pergram added the House won’t be voting on Gaetz’s motion to remove McCarthy immediately, which gives time for the speaker's allies to block this maneuver by presenting a motion to table or refer to the Rules Committee. If either pass—referral or table—then the vacate pitch is dead:

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Gaetz moving to call for a vote of no confidence in McCarthy
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) says he will file a “motion to vacate the chair” this week.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

3) Gaetz threatened to use this motion if McCarthy relied on Democrats to advance spending bills. McCarthy turned to Democrats yesterday to avert a government shutdown.

Such a gambit to try to bounce a Speaker in the middle of a Congress is rare.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

5) A number of members were displeased with House Speaker Joe Cannon (R-IL) and found him to be too dictatorial.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

7) It’s unclear if Democrats could bail out McCarthy in this scenario.

Keep in mind that McCarthy ally, Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA) has also filed a motion to vacate the chair. This is a protective measure that Graves could use to supersede Gaetz’s gambit.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

9) By rule, Gaetz’s resolution is “privileged. That means that when Gaetz offers his resolution, the House must consider it immediately or within two legislative days.

However, the vote will not immediately be on the motion to vacate the chair.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

10) It is highly probable that one of McCarthy’s lieutenants will then move to table (kill) Gaetz’s motion or make a motion to refer the effort to the Rules or House Administration Committee.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

12) If the House approves the secondary motion to table or refer, then Gaetz’s gambit is euthanized. The gig is up.

But if the secondary motion fails, then the House votes on the primary motion. That’s Gaetz’s motion to vacate the chair.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

13) If the secondary motion loses, the primary motion likely prevails. If the primary motion (the motion to vacate) is successful, we are back to January 3, the start of the Congress. The House must take a vote - or votes - to elect a Speaker.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

17) The successful candidate must receive an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for someone by name. “Present” votes do not count. Members who do not vote don’t count against the vote total.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

19) The House currently has 433 members. If all members vote for someone by name in a Speaker’s race, the successful candidate must receive 217 votes.

It’s uncertain if it will get to this stage. But this entire process is about the math.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

21) Some McCarthy opponents on the Democratic side of the aisle may vote with Republicans wanting to bounce the Speaker. Others may not participate in the vote at all. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has said that Republicans must solve this civil war on their own.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

23) McCarthy allies may not have enough votes to kill the motion to vacate, thus putting that motion in play on the next roll call.

Again, if the second motion fails, the House then votes on the initial motion - the motion to vacate.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

24) If the House defeats the second motion, it probably adopts the primary Gaetz motion. And that scenario triggers an automatic revote for Speaker of the House.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 1, 2023

We’ll see what happens this week, but this Gaetz motion could be clipped in a second.