There's been talk about replacing Joe Biden on the 2024 ticket for numerous reasons. It's an unprecedented move, which is why this debate, whether imagined or not, is dragging. There's also the Vice President Kamala Harris factor, which might be a significant roadblock to those who wish to execute this plan. Harris' approval ratings are worse than Biden's. It could send the entire Democratic Party establishment into chaos, boosting the chances of a Republican winning next year.
This is exactly what Doug Schoen, who advised the Clinton White House, said could be the consequence of the "replace Joe" whispers. He noted that the 2024 narrative is changing as Biden's legal baggage piles up over his son's influence-peddling operation. Will that lead to a seismic change in fundraising? We'll see, but in short, should donors get the jitters about Biden, it might rob the left of resources needed to beat Trump, and Democrats will lose if they replace Biden on the ticket:
While there has been a marginal improvement in Donald Trump’s position vis-à-vis Joe Biden, largely due to Biden’s low ratings both for job performance and for his handling of the economy, Biden is also plagued by an increasing number of Democrats who are lukewarm to his position atop the party’s ticket.
Indeed, due to Biden’s age and an increasing perception of corruption involving his son Hunter Biden — who we learned this week is likely to be indicted on gun charges before the end of the month — Biden’s vulnerabilities as a candidate are rapidly piling up.
The reason this is important, is that with a spate of polls, including recent national polling by my firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, showing that Trump’s ratings as president (52% approve, 44% disapprove) are close to 10-points higher than Biden’s contemporaneous ratings (44% approve, 54% disapprove), political analysts are starting to realize that what happened in 2016 could well repeat itself in 2020: That is, an upset victory for Donald Trump.
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…despite people’s doubts about Donald Trump personally — and the doubts are substantial — they believe that he was a better president, on balance, than Joe Biden has been. Plainly speaking, the emphasis that the Biden administration has put on selling “Bidenomics” has fallen flat, and the administration’s ratings on economic management remain stuck below 40% and have even shown slight erosion in some national polls.
The reason this sea change among elite opinion is so important is the donor class obsessively reads the latest available polling data and related commentary. As more and more people recognize that the likelihood of a Trump nomination and potentially even presidency is a very real possibility, it will become tougher to raise and deploy funds needed to challenge Trump in the two states in which he is vulnerable: Iowa and New Hampshire.
In short, both parties are saddled with nominees that aren't the most popular and draw intense partisan reactions. Scores of Democrats might not like Biden but will happily vote for him to deny Trump another term in the White House; the same goes for like-minded independent voters. One of the reasons why Ron DeSantis had such high hopes is that the 2018, 2020, and 2022 election cycles showed a voter coalition large enough to block Trump. Election attrition and fatigue from two retreads, coupled with continued poor economic reports, thanks to Bidenomics, could lead to people staying home in disgust. That level of discontent could drive this talked about "No Labels" third-party run, which won't get electoral votes but will siphon away support from Democrats.
Keep an eye on this, but some discussions about 2024 remain in the too-early column.
