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Tipsheet

Could This Be the First Race Called Tonight?

AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

The 2006 midterms were not pretty. The Iraq War was not going well. There was a string of scandals involving GOP Reps Duke Cunningham (R-CA), Tom DeLay (R-TX), and Mark Foley (R-FL). The housing market was beginning to crash, and Bush’s failed attempt to privatize social security a year prior didn’t help the Republican Party’s campaign in holding their congressional majorities. There was an overwhelming sense that a change was needed, so the GOP killing fields began. A blue wave crashed into DC, shattering the GOP’s mindset that they could maintain a permanent political majority through national security issues post-9/11. Bush was also facing historical fate as the party in power seldom keeps its majority, except for the 2002 midterms.

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One of the earliest races called in 2006 was Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate election. Then-incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) was running for a third term and lost by nearly 20 points. Santorum suffered the worst loss for an incumbent senator since the 1980s. Could we have a similar situation this year, but in reverse, with a Republican dominating in such a manner? It might happen in the Sunshine State, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis seems poised to wipe the floor with Democratic challenger Rep. Charlie Crist, who is vying to get his old job back.

There’s a reason why there are few stories about a Crist comeback or any hope of victory because there is none. Crist is projected to lose badly tonight, with most polls having DeSantis eight-to-ten points ahead of him. And it’s only increased as the chances of a Republican wave increased in the past few weeks of this election cycle. The latest survey had DeSantis up 15 points over Crist. With a margin like that, the race could be called within hours of the polls closing. I know the panhandle closes later, but that’s deep red Republican territory—icing on the cake for Florida Republicans, who seem poised to dominate yet again. 

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What about Rubio? Again, the silence from the Left and their liberal media allies about Democratic Rep. Val Demmings, who is challenging Rubio, is telling: she’s not going to win either. Rubio had a commanding lead, and the latest poll had him up almost ten points over Demmings. 

My guess is that DeSantis will win by a healthy margin of eight-to-twelve points, with Rubio handily winning his re-election effort by six to seven points. 

Here’s to the red wave.

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