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Tipsheet

If These House Races Are in Play, Democrats Should Brace for Merciless Punishment

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

A week from Election Day 2022, the Republican Party has decidedly gained all the momentum which could end with a red tsunami. Things can change quickly—Democrats found that out the hard way. By mid-August, even some Republicans were worried that 2022 would become a referendum on abortion rights. Then, things reverted to the economy because inflation hit working families like a sledgehammer. Democrats responded by doing nothing, then blamed voters for thinking we were in an economic recession. We are—and rising crime is another issue liberals have pivoted by saying it’s a figment of voters’ imagination. The level of liberal condescension has reached peak intensity. While it’s always manifested itself in some form over the past several decades, this year is probably its most delusional iteration. 

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Things we don’t consider a problem are just the concerns of dumber voters—no wonder the Left can’t bridge divides anymore and is seen as the snobbiest, most miserable slice of voters in the electorate. It’s because they are. Less than a week until Election Day, Republicans are pouring cash into House districts that they have zero business expending resources in except for the fact that they’re competitive. These are House districts that Joe Biden won by as much as 20 points in 2020. The level of anger and discontent cannot be ignored if Biden-plus 20 districts are now gettable for Republicans, pointing to yet another sign that a red tsunami is about to hit the Democratic Party brutally (via Axios):

Republicans are pouring cash into House districts that voted for President Biden by as much as 20 points, targeting under-the-radar battlegrounds amid growing signs of a red wave.

Why it matters: Infusions of funding by both parties into these solidly blue seats signal the potential for a Republican landslide, further complicating the Democratic calculus on which races to defend. 

Context: These districts are bluer than Washington state, which backed Biden by 19 points in 2020.

[…] 

California's 26th: Rep. Julia Brownley (D) is sounding the alarm to colleagues about her surprisingly competitive race against Republican Matt Jacobs as Republicans make inroads in other West Coast blue states.

New York's 25th: Rep. Joe Morelle (D) faces former Rochester police chief La’Ron Singletary — who garnered headlines in 2020 when he was fired after the death of a man in police custody — as crime has emerged as a top issue up and down the ballot in New York.

Pennsylvania's 12th: Progressive Democrat Summer Lee is running in this Pittsburgh-based district to replace Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.) — against a Republican local legislator also named Mike Doyle.

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Related:

2022 ELECTIONS

If you’re a Democratic operative, you must be kicking yourself, looking back at all the lost time the party lost addressing inflation. Joe Biden felt it wasn’t his fault, and even Democrats, like Tim Ryan, couldn’t escape the national party line or the stench of Biden’s dismal approval ratings. You cannot run away from a national message anymore. Even Democrats who portray themselves as lukewarm on Biden still get stained due to their party affiliation. 

A Biden-plus 20 districts should be safe territory, yet some of these areas could be excellent pick-ups.

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