Has there been a shift regarding Joe Biden's support among Catholic voters? Not really—it’s a mixed bag, though some of the splits, like support for abortion rights, go against catechism—based on the 2020 exit polls, it seems this voting bloc has somewhat remained the same. What Catholics are concerned about for the 2022 season is starkly different. Philip Wegmann of Real Clear Politics went through the layers of this voter bloc, noting that almost 60 percent of Catholics don’t want Biden to run in 2024. Moreover, he carries a 51.8 percent disapproval to 46.2 percent approval ratings, with those not fond of his presidency registering a much more intense dislike of his job performance.
In 2020, Joe Biden won this voter bloc over Trump 52/47, so not much has changed. It almost seems that the people who voted in the last presidential election have kept to their corners. Yet, as Sean Trende, also of Real Clear Politics, said after the 2012 elections, there are many ways to skin the electoral cat.
The good news for Republicans is that there is no decisive advantage here as opposed to women voters. Still, dissecting the Catholic vote could be one where the GOP must fight tenaciously for the edge. GOP operatives might be keener on maximizing turnout with rural white working-class voters or even Hispanics, who has soured a great deal on Joe Biden.
The numbers on abortion, which I’ll blockquote below, is probably not the best avenue to attack the president with Catholic voters. Still, immigration and education could be nice offramps to drive a wedge. These people are very concerned about the education deficit left by the COVID lockdowns, and there’s only one party that would chuck all of us back into the bunker if they could: the Democrats. Though the issue itself, however, paradoxically ranked low on the concerns of Catholic voters (via RCP):
When asked if the president should run for a second term, 58.4% replied “no.” Only 22.2% said “yes.” Rough results, but Biden shouldn’t take them too personally.
According to a recent RealClear Opinion Research survey done in concert with Catholic television network EWTN, these voters would like to see a change in the leadership of both major political parties. Catholics have also soured on Biden’s predecessor, and another clear majority, 63.3%, report that they do not want to see Donald Trump on the ballot in 2024.
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Like the rest of the country, the Catholic view of the Catholic president is split. They might worship the same way on Sunday, but then this demographic diverges over the way Biden does his job the rest of the week. A slight majority, 51.8%, disapprove of his performance. Another 46.2%, meanwhile, approve. There is a notable difference in intensity of feeling: 47.2% report "strong disapproval” of the president compared to just 14.2% who “strongly approve” of him.
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Catholic voters are obviously concerned about the economy like everyone else. Inflation, according to 34.2% of respondents, was the top problem facing the country. The economy and jobs were a related but distant second with 19.7%.
An overwhelming majority, 53.9%, ranked those intertwined challenges as their top concern. Abortion and immigration tied for a distant third place in the minds of Catholic voters, with 10% each.
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Abortion tied with immigration as the third most important concern on the mind of Catholic voters. Despite the teaching of the church, however, Catholics remain split. On the question of abortion restrictions post-Roe, 46.2% said that each state should determine its own abortion policy, while another 47.8% were in line with the White House, reporting that abortion should instead be a federally protected right.
Framing the question in light of the coming midterms didn’t change the result. Pollsters asked voters if they were more or less likely to support a candidate who agreed with overturning Roe, allowing each state to determine abortion policy.
Exactly 42% said they would be “more likely” to do so. Roughly 42% said they were “less likely.”
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It's a voter study loaded with nuance. Still, with an economic recession, high inflation, a border crisis, and violent crime spiking—the Republican Party doesn’t need an electoral strategy geared to a specific group. All these issues have impacted everyone equally. The next phase is to attach these societal shortfalls and blame Biden; some voters still don’t blame the president just yet, believe it or not.
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