When Pennsylvania Republican Senator Pat Toomey first announced his retirement from public life, I thought we were cooked for that seat. The Pennsylvania Republican Party has had an abysmal record in finding statewide candidates who can seal the deal. Toomey and former Republican Gov. Tom Corbett, defeated for re-election in 2014, are two of the most recent success stories. Donald Trump won the state in the 2016 election, but the last time a Republican clinched the Keystone State in a presidential contest was in 1988. Despite having the electoral tangibles to be a very winnable state from the GOP, the state has become something of a mirage for Republicans—the archetypal political unicorn. You think you have a chance, but then months later and millions of dollars burned, the Democratic candidates are still ahead by six-to-eight points in the polls.
Dr. Mehmet Oz winning the GOP Senate primary was emblematic of a state bench that lacks depth. We needed the tv doctor to take the Senate mantle. The race seemed like a train wreck, but Oz got his act together and found a messaging strategy that resonated. Oz has hit his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, on his appalling record regarding public safety. Fetterman’s plan to empty one-third of PA jails and abolish life imprisonment for murderers isn’t popular, and it’s helped chip away at his double-digit lead over Oz this summer. His recovery from what appears to be a severe stroke also hasn’t helped make his case. The two men are supposed to debate later this month, albeit with a list of demands from Fetterman’s camp that rivals the US tax code.
With less than a month away from the election, Oz has another bit of good news to share as he prepares his get-out-the-vote operation: the base is coming home (via The Hill):
Over the last month, national and Pennsylvania Republicans alike have grown increasingly bullish over Oz’s chances as attacks on Fetterman’s campaign strategy amid his stroke recovery and stance on crime have helped vault Oz back into contention.
Recent polls show just as much. In less than two months, Oz has chopped Fetterman’s lead nearly in half, with the lieutenant governor now leading by roughly 4 percentage points. Additionally, Republican operatives and strategists across the board are convinced Oz will get the job done, a far cry from only weeks ago.
“I feel a lot better about Pennsylvania than I did four or five weeks ago. That’s for sure,” one Pennsylvania-based GOP operative told The Hill, adding that there was a “panic” that set in amongst Pennsylvania and national Republicans and extended into the world of former President Trump.
According to a recent Fox News poll, 83 percent of Republicans are now behind Oz, up from 73 percent from the previous poll taken in July. Not coincidentally, Fetterman only leads by 4 percentage points in the recent survey compared to 11 points in the summer, and the pundits have taken notice.
The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted the race from “lean Democrat” to one of the four toss-up contests left on the map.
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Perhaps the biggest part of Oz’s independent outreach, however, remains his attacks against Fetterman on crime, an issue that has galvanized the GOP base not just in Pennsylvania, but across the country.
There are rumblings that the Pennsylvania suburbs are up for grabs this year, as voters are increasingly turning their backs on Joe Biden and his agenda of abject economic failure. They’re worried about crime, and Fetterman isn’t necessarily someone you can trust to keep you safe; he’s the ‘let’s be merciful for first-degree murderers’ man. To complicate things even further for Democrats, PA Republicans might impeach the Philadelphia district attorney, Larry Krasner, for dereliction of duty regarding the spike in gun crime in the city—Fetterman endorsed this man for re-election.
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