I almost spit out my coffee when I read the headline as well. The suburbs of Pennsylvania have been a problematic electoral cat for Republicans to skin, though not impossible. Pat Toomey was able to do it in 2016. Former Gov. Tom Corbett did it in 2010. Winning Bucks County seems to be the bellwether concerning how a GOP candidate will fare statewide. Bucks, along with Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester, make up the four collar counties around Philadelphia that decide these elections. These were areas that Democrats were banking on saving them from electoral destruction over issues like abortion—but those days of rage are over because the economy and inflation are the top issues for voters here. Abortion isn’t remotely on the radar for families still picking their jaws up off the floor from the damage Biden’s failed ‘build back better’ agenda had inflicted upon them. Education and schools are the second most crucial issue for PA’s suburban voters.
Athan Koutsiouroumbas of Long Nyquist, a consulting firm based in Harrisburg, dissected a recent ABC News/Washington Post survey to detail a potentially historic Republican showing in 2022. The numbers are like the 1994 and 2010 GOP waves. The message is clear: the PA suburbs have seen enough of the Biden agenda. Koutsiouroumbas added that persuading swing voters isn’t even necessary to catapult Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz to victory—he just needs to energize the base who were subjected to a lengthy and nasty primary fight this summer (via Real Clear Politics):
In late September, ABC News/Washington Post released a national survey to little fanfare, as its findings underscore what we already know: The economy and inflation are the top priorities of likely voters this midterm election.
No other issue comes close. In fact, “education and schools” tops “abortion” by 15 points.
However, buried in the poll was an astounding finding as it relates to “competitive” congressional districts which are typically found in suburban and exurban communities.
By a 21-point margin, the survey found that suburban and exurban congressional districts favor Republican candidates.
Comparing those “competitive” districts with so-called “safe Republican” districts, the survey found that voters in the “safe Republican” districts favored Republican candidates by a 24-point margin.
In other words, “competitive” and “safe Republican” congressional seats are favoring Republican candidates by nearly the same margin.
Here in Pennsylvania, that translates to portions of the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs voting like they just returned from John Dutton’s Yellowstone Ranch. These “generic ballot” numbers are stunning.
In fact, they may be unprecedented. One would have to go back to 1994 or 2010 to find anything similar.
This suburban-exurban trend is manifesting itself in another more tangible way that is both historic and underreported.
In the Philadelphia suburbs, Democratic and Independent registered voters are changing their party to Republican in numbers not seen since these statistics were first tracked by the state government.
Oz should still try to win every vote, but Fetterman is not an option for GOP voters reeling from the primary shenanigans. It also shreds the narrative about the Democrats' misplaced hope in recent voter registration numbers. Republicans have been winning that fight for the past 18 months. You’re too late to the party, and Republicans have been winning the registration fight in crucial counties like Bucks by a 2:1 margin.
Before we order the champagne, here’s a suggestion: don’t. We still have to remember that the last gubernatorial win the GOP had in the Keystone State was in 2010. The last time this state went for a Republican in a presidential contest was 2016—the most recent win after that was 1988. Pennsylvania has been a cruel mistress to Republicans, Romney's most brutal letdown in 2012. In today’s climate, screw Romney, but the fact remains that the fundamentals of campaigning need to be adhered to until Election Day. Oz must wipe the floor with Fetterman during their first debate planned toward the end of the month. He also needs to have a stellar get-out-the-vote operation and make it clear that Fetterman is too extreme—he wants to abolish life sentences for murderers and empty one-third of PA’s jails—for the Senate. Fetterman is also recovering from what appears to be a severe stroke and can barely string a sentence together. It’s one of the many reasons his once solid double-digit lead over Oz has evaporated in the most critical phase of the 2022 cycle.
PA suburbs breaking for the Republicans—there will be rivers of liberal tears if this comes true.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member