On August 8, the Federal Bureau of Investigation ransacked the home of former President Donald Trump. They swarmed Mar-a-Lago under the auspices of the Presidential Records Act, which isn’t a criminal statute, seized documents, and weeks later have yet to find smoking gun evidence that Trump mishandled classified information—which he could never be charged with from the get-go. The president is the ultimate authority on declassifying records. The FBI’s raid, and ensuing legal drama, have united the Republican Party behind Trump to the point where if this was meant as a warning to not run in 2024—which it was—it backfired spectacularly. It was probably the most significant in-kind contribution to the Trump 2024 campaign aside from the free media projected to benefit the former president when he does announce his candidacy. While Trump has a solid base to run for office again, it isn’t what it used to be—and one survey shows that there’s more upside with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
That doesn’t mean I’m backing away from Trump. I’m still pulling for him in the wake of the Department of Justice’s arguably unconstitutional raid on Mar-a-Lago. It provides the former president with a better campaign narrative with him being viewed as an enemy of the state, which is better than him potentially whining about the 2020 election. Funny business or not—it’s over. All that can be done now is to defeat Joe Biden, the Democrats, and go headlong into a legislative charge that passes voter integrity laws, like the one in Georgia, in almost every state.
Back to the impending Trump-DeSantis duel, it will almost certainly be bloody. Both men have proven records of legislative accomplishment. One has won a national election, while the other has the intangibles to do so in his own right. Like Trump, DeSantis has slapped down the liberal media attacks on him with ease and ferocity. He’s also benefitting from a free media splurge, albeit not as extensive regarding the ‘he’s terrible but not as bad as Trump’ pieces the liberal media is writing about him. DeSantis is, however, more aware of the perils regarding this coverage. Matt Taibbi has aptly observed that the more the media tries to elevate a candidate, the harder the fall—as we’ve seen with Beto O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams, and others. The media has become the “kingmakers of suck,” so DeSantis is letting them talk but not taking their bait—like The View inviting him on their show. He rejected the invitation, not because he’s afraid of its co-hosts—DeSantis would own if given a chair—but he knows that peaking too soon could be fatal. Let’s call that the ‘Scott Walker’ effect.
Yet, even with FBI agents running amok, the Department of Justice executing potentially illegal searches, and the liberal media’s outright derangement from 45—a significant chunk of the base is tired of the volatility surrounding the former president. Without a doubt, Trump still has a solid base to launch a 2024 campaign. Still, DeSantis always drew more enthusiastic support from the Trump skeptic wing, which initially drew expectations that DeSantis could unite the GOP’s two branches which have been at each other’s throats for nearly the past ten years. Again, the base of the GOP between these two men makes way for a nasty showdown.
Impact Social surveyed 40,000 swing voters concerning Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. It was quite the grouping, with “disillusioned Trump voters, Biden skeptics, Never Trumpers, centrists, independents, Obama-Trump voters, abstainers, former Democrats, and Bernie/far-left supporters.”
This unique confederacy of voters viewed DeSantis more positively 28/26 than Trump’s 10/51. Yet, in both polls, 46 percent were neutral regarding DeSantis, 39 percent toward Trump. Here’s more on their findings:
The last two weeks has seen a sharp downturn (-14pts) in net sentiment for Trump (-29 to -41) as swing voters, exasperated by multiple investigations, turn against him. The trigger for much of this renewed negativity has been revelations about what FBI agents allegedly found at Mar-a-Lago. An initial surge in support for the former president as a victim of a political raid has been reversed by a sense of shock and incredulity as to why he would hold sensitive documents at home and for what purpose?
As a result, the FBI 'raid' has replaced the Jan 6 events as the largest single topic of negative conversation in relation to Trump and his popularity has slumped to its lowest level since mid July.
There is also now a sharpened focus on other investigations into Trump, with many swing voters expressing anger at the slow progress. Authority figures such as Merrick Garland are coming under attack for failing to indict the former president, with many fearing that Trump will never see the inside of a courtroom let alone a prison cell. Also under attack, Trump's hardcore supporters who are accused of treason and treachery in continuing their loyalty towards Trump despite the many allegations of grave misdemeanors levelled against him.
Our previous report showed that news of the Mar-a-Lago raid initially sparked an angry response among right leaning swing voters happy to defend Trump against what they saw as a politically motivated break in. This upsurge in support has quickly dissipated as detail emerged on the contents seized. Consequently this report shows that swing voters who continue to side with Trump are trying to pivot away from the raid, highlighting instead issues such as Trump's economic record in office.
Trump's potential challenger for the Republican presidential nomination, Ron DeSantis, continues to enjoy a charmed existence. As a less prominent national figure DeSantis is not subjected to the same scrutiny and judgement as the former president. The volume of conversations in which he is mentioned by swing voters is much lower (DeSantis 14K - Trump 178K). This is obviously an issue he will have to address if he is to challenge Trump for the presidency.
As in any competition, the situation on the ground changes often. We saw that during the 2016 primaries, the Trump moment eviscerated a slew of establishment-leaning candidates from the Republican Party that were viewed as the movement's future. Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz—all had their presidential aspirations shuttered forever. Trump was the unknown factor, and after years of losing, the GOP base, which had changed, was looking for someone who wasn’t part of the DC political scene. Trump can’t run on the outsider role now; that would be DeSantis. Both men can raise money and mobilize their troops. The debates are where we’ll better gauge who can draw blood first and deliver the punishment that secures the nomination. DeSantis is unknown in this field, whereas Trump can and has destroyed people on the stage. This survey could be reassessed after that event, but we have eons of time before that contest. Trump could declare his candidacy within a few weeks after the midterms. DeSantis is currently dealing with his 2022 re-election effort and managing Hurricane Ian, which slammed into his state this week, providing another leadership test for the governor.
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