We’re still in the midst of counting votes and investigating allegations of voter fraud, but the media has called the 2020 election for Joe Biden. Yet, out of the many stories about this cycle, one that will soon bubble up soon will be about the polling…again. Pollsters who had Biden in the lead will take a victory lap. They shouldn’t. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver says, “There's not actually much evidence that polls are becoming less accurate. They had perhaps their best year ever in 2018. 2016 and 2020 polling errors were slightly worse than average but within a fairly normal range.”
There's not actually much evidence that polls are becoming less accurate. They had perhaps their best year ever in 2018. 2016 and 2020 polling errors were slightly worse than average but within a fairly normal range.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 10, 2020
Even as Biden is on the cusp of victory, the margins were wrong. Did Biden win by 10-14 points? No. Yes, some surveys had the former VP with that wide of a lead. Even Biden’s own campaign team admitted that they weren’t ahead by double-digits. Another prediction that was off was one from CNN, where they said the odds of Biden winning the election dipped if he lost Florida. He did lose Florida. He might become the president-elect.
Florida is likely going to count its votes fast on Nov 3... Models I look at suggest Biden's chance of winning the prez if he wins FL is ~95%. It drops below 50% if he loses FL.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 29, 2020
And then, there’s the slew of House races that these clowns blew. Wasn’t the GOP supposed to lose seats? Democrats were supposed to gain 10-15 seats. That didn’t happen. Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) was long written off as toast, but Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) won in North Carolina. Susan Collins won in Maine, albeit not by her usual benchmark. She usually gets around 60 percent of the vote or more in her elections. Yes, the Kavanaugh Supreme Court fight made her a target. She survived. Her Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, was supposed to beat her by…12 points. Collins ended up beating her 51/42. There was no blue wave. Support from Asian, Hispanic, and black voters increased for Trump.
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Being off by that much, regardless if Biden wins or not, is not good. It’s called getting lucky. The pollsters miss the House races, Senate races, and get the margins for the presidential totally wrong, but things are not getting less accurate, says Nate Silver. Oh, and let's not forget that FiveThirtyEight actually published something about Democrats possibly picking up 13 Senate seats. Also, wasn't Lindsey Graham supposed to be in serious trouble this cycle. HA HA HA HA.
This is a real tweet. I had to double check that it wasn’t a parody. It’s not. https://t.co/I5MU8JoAOx
— Mickey White (@BiasedGirl) November 10, 2020
I like a good contrarian argument as much as the next guy but there's really no getting around the fact that the 2020 polling was a pile of steaming garbage. (h/t @thomasjwood) pic.twitter.com/klfY1FGQG3
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) November 10, 2020
I like to put things on the record. Final Florida (MSM-loved) polls:
— Kimberley Strassel (@KimStrassel) November 4, 2020
Quinnipiac: Biden +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +4
CNBC/Change: Biden +3#Election2020
Again, for the record. The final (mainstream) Ohio polls:
— Kimberley Strassel (@KimStrassel) November 4, 2020
Quinnipiac: Biden +4
Emerson: Biden +1
Quinnipiac: Biden +5
Trump, with 94% reporting, winning by +8
This definitely aged well https://t.co/mYTpQH1UIm
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) November 4, 2020
NYT/Siena, rated an A+ pollster by 538, overestimated Biden's support by:
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 4, 2020
6+ in FL
4+ in NC
Probably 6ish in MI when the count is in
10 ish in WI
10+ in IA
9+ in OH
Great job.
Another direct hit pic.twitter.com/eZlqlfSBKy
— David Rutz (@DavidRutz) November 10, 2020
Hard to believe they're any more delusional than fake pollsters who said Susan Collins would lose by double digits and Lindsay Graham was tied, or forecasters who claimed House Democrats would control 239 seats and Senate Democrats could end up with 55. https://t.co/iIJahZoocs
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) November 11, 2020
Hell, I was wrong about this race. I'll admit it, which is something these polling clowns won't do.
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