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Tipsheet

Hive Mind: RCP Pollster Throws Cold Water On Blue Wave Cheerleaders

As we all head to the polls today, there’s been a months-long obsession from the media, pollsters, and pundits about the so-called blue wave. The Democrats have the edge in the generic ballot advantage, but in the races that will decide who will control the House—the Senate is a GOP lock—that advantage is worthless. Some of these races are within a point or two, making it statistically insignificant. The booming economy and the looming crisis at the border could buoy GOP chances. Yet, for some pollsters, they’re saying let’s hit the brakes for a second. Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics is one of those people I read as I enjoy his analyses on various elections. He went on a lengthy Twitter thread detailing that a) the GOP could hold the House; b) he looks for reasons why his projections could be wrong instead of the other way around; and c) the mainstream media “hivemind” assessment that the Democrats will retake the House should echo of the failures from the 2016 election.

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He also noted that unlike 2006, Trump’s approval rating is better than Bush’s, the economy is doing well, and we’re not fighting a costly and unpopular war that was blasted all over television every night. He also adds that in many of these House races where the difference is between a point or two, there’s some “serious GOP DNA,” so expect those to break for the Republican, right? In short, it’s perfectly healthy to say we’ll see. And with the polls this tight, that’s what’s going to happen. We’ll wait and see.

Now, there are some who don't see a blue wave coming, like CNN's Jeff Zeleny. But be sure to tune into our live coverage for all the results to see if we'll be drinking liberal tears again, or be saddled with an antagonistic and unhinged Democratic House.

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