Democrats certainly smell blood in the water. The majority of the country thinks Donald Trump is unfit to serve as president and his approval ratings aren’t solid. These are by no means a guarantee of a blue wave for 2018 or 2020. Historically, yes—approval ratings were a good gauge for midterm elections, but Trump is a different president. He communicates with his base differently, which drives the news media and pundit class insane. They can’t pin this guy. Democratic operatives are sounding the alarm early: the underwater approval ratings are not a sign of electoral success and if you think they are—the party is on a collision course with another iceberg. Nothing the Left has thrown against Donald Trump has worked. No attack has resonated with voters. If anything, it’s only strengthened his base. For now, despite his legislative agenda being stuck in a position of neutral at the moment, with unprecedented Democratic opposition on the Hill—Trump is on track to win re-election.
This is from a Democratic strategist, Doug Sosnik, a former adviser to Bill Clinton, who listed four things in The Washington Post explaining why Trump is on track for a 2020 win. The first and most obvious is that he can win with his base alone and he has zero inclinations concerning expanding it. Why? He knows it’s not required for victory. The decline in support for Democrats and Republicans helps him keep that independent streak with his voters, who Sosnik noted stick with him because their support, their feelings about the system working against them, is personal.
Polls have continually underestimated his support, which I’m guessing has not decreased in any way, shape, or form. Sosnik also notes that there is a possibility of a third party candidacy arising, which further splinters the anti-Trump vote. The Democratic agita hasn’t helped either, with the establishment and progressive wings on the verge of civil war. Frankly, Democrats have yet to learn anything from their 2016 walloping. Until they do, the GOP will always have the advantage. It’s not their policies; it’s them. They suck. The hyper-left, pro-political correctness nonsensical crap has turned the liberal movement into both a laughingstock and an unpalatable cocktail that only urban-based, overly educated elites can enjoy. So, for the GOP folks, it’s not that you’re popular either; it’s just that the Democrats are that much worse.
…Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trump’s strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support. Many national polls survey all eligible voters, rather than registered or likely voters, which can underestimate Trump, and some voters may be reluctant to admit that they are pro-Trump at all. Add to that the fact that Trump effectively demonstrated during the 2016 campaign that he is capable of expanding his support by effectively demonizing his opponents.
…Trump’s support has largely remained durable with a core group of supporters. These are the voters Trump was referring to when he said that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and he wouldn’t lose votes. There is another group of Trump followers whose support isn’t unequivocal, but they have stayed with him because they still believe he will blow up the system and bring about real change.