Pennsylvania: Clinton Falls In Key Swing State

Posted: Sep 01, 2016 12:30 PM
Pennsylvania: Clinton Falls In Key Swing State

The road for Donald Trump to win the White House goes through Pennsylvania. Actually, all roads for Trump winning this election count on him taking the Keystone State and Florida (via Cook Report):

Trump, meanwhile, has only 4 paths to 270 [Clinton has 13]. And, all require winning BOTH Florida and Pennsylvania. The current Real Clear Politics Average of polls has Clinton up by nine points in Pennsylvania and 4.5 points in Florida. Unless and until Trump can turn those numbers around, there is no way he can win the election.

Yet, ever since new revelations about the Clinton Foundation were released last week, the former first lady has taken a nosedive in the polls. It became official when three national polls showed her dipping in support, though Trump still trailed her between five-to-seven points. He’s within striking distance; the Real Clear Politics average has him trailing less than five from all polls taken between the two candidates. At the same time, he’s trailing in states that he needs to win. So, it’s probably welcome news for the Trump team that Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania has almost been cut in half (via The Hill):

Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is down to seven points in the key battleground Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll released Thursday morning.

Clinton has 47 percent support in the Keystone State, the poll found, with Trump at 40 percent.

The Democratic presidential nominee led by 11 points in the same poll last month, immediately following the Democratic National Convention.

Among registered voters, Clinton's lead drops to four points: 43 to 39 percent.

So, by the metrics, Pennsylvania is getting more competitive, but she’s a cold-hearted—especially with Republicans who haven’t won the state since 1988. It’s become a unicorn of sorts, with the GOP dumping money into the state, only to reap disappointment in the end. Nevertheless, this critical brick in the Democrats’ Northeastern Blue Wall has to be taken by Trump. That being said, perhaps the Trump campaign, fresh off a poll boost with new ammunition to use against Hillary Clinton, should do what Guy wrote about in early August: camp out in Florida and Pennsylvania.

Also, there’s this from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight: