Why Saxby Looks Strong in GA...

Posted: Dec 01, 2008 3:41 PM

Predictions are dangerous, of course, but so far, all signs point to a Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) victory in tomorrow's run-off. 

Following are my reasons for being optimistic:

1.  Obama's base already accomplished what they wanted: Obama is the President-Elect.  Even with Obama on the ballot, Chambliss out-polled his Democratic rival.  What are the odds Democrats will be more motivated to vote without Obama on the ballot? 

... As evidence of this, so far, African American early voting turn-out has been about 22 percent (in the General it was 34 percent at this point).

2.  Unlike the General Election, there is no Libertarian in the run-off to take votes away from Chambliss.  In the General Election, Libertarian Allen Buckley pulled about 130,000 votes.  Most of those votes probably came from Chambliss.  In fact, my bet is that many were protest votes meant to send a message to the GOP.

3.  Sarah Palinwho is campaigning in Georgia today, will be a huge asset.  She did four state-wide events today, and we're hearing 3-5,000 attendees at each event.   No doubt, Palin will increase Republican turnout.  Meanwhile, Barack Obama has decided not to campaign (in person) in the state.