More Than One Way to Parse a Poll

Posted: May 02, 2007 10:01 AM


It's funny how polls can be interpreted.  Hugh rightly notes that the American Research Group's poll shows Romney rising in early states. 

But here's how the USA Today reported the results:

New poll: McCain leads GOP pack in three key states; Clinton leads Dems in two

American Research Group's latest polling in the key early-decision states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina shows:

• Sen. John McCain of Arizona leading his Republican rivals in all three states. Rudy Giuliani is second in Iowa and South Carolina. Mitt Romney, former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, is second in New Hampshire.

In ARG's polls, McCain had trailed Giuliani in Iowa as recently as February and had been tied with Giuliani in New Hampshire that month. (He has consistently led in South Carolina.)

The Politico's Jonathan Martin wonders if this is all a sign of a McCain "re-surge."