The Cook Political Report made five House rating changes this week, showing Republicans losing ground in three races. The analysis also has some positive news for the GOP, however, as two races moved slightly in their favor.
GOP Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Ken Calvert of California had their seats move from "lean Republican" to "toss-up," while Republican Rep. Greg Landsman of Ohio's district changed to "lean Democrat" from "toss-up."
Races that moved in Republicans' favor are in California and Texas. Democrat Rep. Josh Harder's 9th District in The Golden State went from "solid Democrat" to "likely Democrat," and Rep. Vincente Gonzalez's 34th District in The Lone Star State shifted from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat."
The change for Harder's district came after a GOP "dream candidate," Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, entered the race. Lincoln, who is Black and Latino, defeated former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs three years ago by 12 points. Tubbs was a champion of progressive ideas like universal basic income.
Lincoln said running for Congress is "a call to service," telling Lincoln KCRA 3 morning news, "It's no different than any other season in my life, whether it's me joining the United States Marine Corps, serving our country, serving locally in a nonprofit local church or stepping up to serve our great city as Stockton as a mayor. I'm committed to this."
A shift in Texas's 34th Congressional District, meanwhile, comes after former GOP Rep. Mayra Flores jumped into the race. She will again face off against Gonzalez. She had been elected in a special election only to lose the seat a few months later after redistricting made the environment more favorable to Democrats.
I am excited to announce that I am officially running for Congress in #TX34
— Mayra Flores (@MayraFlores_TX) July 11, 2023
We made history last year, but there’s still work to be done here in South Texas.
I’m running to help restore the American Dream, secure our borders, and stand strong on our values of God, Family and… pic.twitter.com/OgMKepIB8b
As for Boebert, Matt recently highlighted her troubles back home and how she needs to focus a bit more on the constituent services part of the job. After all, she only defeated Aspen Councilman Adam Frisch by 546 votes in 2022 and will again face him in a rematch in 2024.
Still, according to Cook, about 80,000 voters who didn't vote in the midterms will likely decide the race. Those voters, most of whom are independent, may be more favorable to her.
Calvert, too, will face a rematch with former federal prosecutor Will Rollins. More democratic areas were included in recent redistricting, making the race for the Inland Empire's longest-serving congressman more competitive.
Landsman's district in the Cincinnati area could be affected by Ohio's top court.
"A recent Supreme Court order to have the state's high court revisit a congressional map it struck down as an illegal gerrymander could hinder Democrats across the state," reports the Washington Examiner. "But a recent change for the state's Supreme Court attaining a conservative majority means the map might not change until 2026, in which case other Democrats could be exposed to greater challenges but Landsman could see his lines remain the same."
NEW @CookPolitical: five House rating changes, including #CA41 Rep. Ken Calvert (R) and #CO03 Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) from Lean R to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/BRitK3rSfD pic.twitter.com/bRhb5ZtWHH
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 20, 2023
