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Tipsheet

Sabato's Crystal Ball Gives Final Midterm Prediction

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball released its final ratings on Monday for the 2022 elections, showing favorable outcomes in the House and Senate for the Republican Party.

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According to the analysis published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, President Biden’s unpopularity coupled with the economic/inflation problems plaguing the nation have favored the GOP, but Democrats have been given the chance to limit their losses due to Republican candidate problems in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races as well as the unpopularity of overturning Roe v. Wade. 

“To the extent these factors matter, our best guess is that they end up imposing some limitations on the size of GOP gains this year,” the analysis states. 

 In sum, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has Republicans gaining 1 seat in the Senate (51-49), 24 seats in the House (237-198), and a net GOP gain of 1 governorship (29-21).

On the Senate:

 "[W]e believe the Republicans are at least small favorites in the Senate, and so we wanted to get them to at least 51 in our ratings," the analysis states. "Georgia and Pennsylvania, in addition to the other Republican-leaning races that we are not changing, is the path we’ve chosen, based on our best intel. And, to be honest, we think it’s probably likelier that Republicans get over 51 than Democrats stay at 50 and preserve their majority." 

Still, caution is urged, especially in some Senate races that remain a toss-up like in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. And the country will not likely know the final Senate outcome on Tuesday night given Arizona taking several days to finish counting ballots as well as the possibility of a runoff in Georgia, among other factors.

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On the House:

The Republicans’ surprisingly robust performance in the 2020 election, in which they won 213 seats, took a lot of the drama out of the race for the majority in 2022. By getting to within 5 seats of the speakership a couple of years ago, Republicans made it so that there was never much significant doubt about the House in 2022, given the way midterms often go for the party that holds the White House. Yes, there were the ups and downs of redistricting, as well as the back-and-forth of the election cycle, particularly in the late summer, when Democrats enjoyed a string of good showings in a series of special elections. But Democrats never truly seemed to be in serious contention to hold the House — the amount of defense they have had to play is just too daunting, and they have been hampered by a number of open seats. A considerable number of them are in the Leans Republican column now.

Sabato's projections show Republicans enjoying a "good but not necessarily great night."  


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