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Tipsheet

What Betting Market Analysis Says About Which Dem Could Possibly Beat Trump

AP Photo/ Evan Vucci

While pundits are fixated on which of the top Democrats vying for the party’s nomination can beat President Trump come November, betting markets are currently favoring a candidate who wasn’t even on the debate stage Tuesday night.

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If nominated, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is most likely to beat President Trump, according to betting market analysis.

That finding comes with a major catch, however—if he wins the Democratic nomination.

"Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent," the study states, according to researchers at Standard Chartered Bank.

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Englander and Kendrick wrote in the note that it’s possible that investors believe it is likely that Trump or a moderate Democrat who is “sympathetic to asset markets” — notably Bloomberg or former Vice President Joe Biden — will ultimately prevail.

“Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress,” the researchers wrote.

The researchers suggested it could also be too early for markets to be affected by the 2020 race and that investors may believe that candidates could face trouble enacting their agendas if elected.

Englander and Kendrick wrote that the decline in the past few weeks of one of the leading progressives in the race, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., may have neutralized the impact of the other, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the eyes of investors. (CNBC)

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According to the researchers' findings, President Trump has a better chance of winning than any Democrat. 

"President Trump remains the overwhelming (90%+) favourite to get the Republican nomination and is priced for a 55-60% chance of winning if nominated, ahead of all the Democrats," the authors write.

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