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Tipsheet

Gallup Poll Tracking Voters' Predictions That Hasn't Been Wrong Since 1946 Indicates GOP Will Keep House

A Gallup poll that tracks voters' predictions of who they believe will win the House of Representatives, released Tuesday, is indicating that Republicans will keep control of the House. Voters' predictions of which party will take control of the House have been correct in past Gallup polls since 1946.

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Fifty percent of Americans said they thought the GOP would keep control of the House while 44 percent said they thought Democrats would take control.

Gallup notes that in every past poll “Americans' prediction came true, although the current six-percentage-point gap in the Republicans' favor is the narrowest in the trend.”

However, they add that, “in the current poll, the preferences of a narrower group of likely voters on the generic congressional ballot find 54% saying they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43% say they will vote for the Republican,” arguing that, “this likely voter estimate indicates Democrats are in a good position to win the majority in the House.”

In contrast to the mere six percentage point gap regarding which party will take control of the House, the majority of Americans said they think Republicans will keep control of the Senate.

Sixty-one percent of Americans overall said the GOP would stay in control of the Senate, while 33 percent thought Democrats would take control.

The poll also found that Democrats are much more anxious about the results of the midterms than Republicans, something encapsulated in a recent Saturday Night Live skit.

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Eighty-one percent of Democrats are very or somewhat worried about the effects of Republican control in Congress in either the House or the Senate as opposed to 66 percent of Republicans who feel that way about Democratic control in one or both houses.

Results for the poll are “based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 15-28, 2018, with a random sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.”

Editors note: This post has been updated to make it clearer that the Gallup poll was based on voters' predictions not voters' preferences.

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