On Saturday night a new and shocking Des Moines Register poll was released showing Vice President Kamala Harris beating former President Donald Trump in Iowa just three days ahead of Election Day.
"Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory. A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states," the Des Moines Register reports. "The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time."
📊 Final IOWA poll by Ann Selzer for Des Moines Register
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2024
🟦 Harris: 47% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 44%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
Last poll (9/8-11) - 🔴 Trump +4
——
#12 (2.8/3.0) | 803 | 10/28-31https://t.co/RiuFL1VB5l
The Trump campaign immediately responded Saturday night with the following:
Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.
To their credit, the Emerson College poll has an R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls at R+10), and a Trump +8 recalled 2020 vote margin that aligns with reported returns. Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their survey.
In the outlier Des Moines Register poll, they claim Harris leads with seniors (age 65+) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020, President Trump carried seniors 54-45 over Biden according to CNN exit polls.
The Emerson College poll released today concurs with the CNN exits from 2020, with President Trump solidly ahead 54-45 among voters aged 60-69, and 54-44 among voters aged 70+.
The Des Moines Register also claims Harris leads by 20 points among women (56-36). In 2020, President Trump tied Biden 49-49 among women according to CNN exits.
Once again, Emerson College's poll today is more similar to the exits, showing instead a lead for President Trump of 5 points - 52-47.
Des Moines Register claims President Trump leads 51-39 among voters without a college degree. In 2020, President Trump won non-college voters by 17 points (58-41).
Yet again, Emerson College's poll from today agrees, with President Trump leading strongly among voters who have less than a 4-year degree.
📊 Final IOWA poll by Emerson
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2024
🟥 Trump: 53%
🟦 Harris: 43%
With leans
🟥 Trump: 54%
🟦 Harris: 45%
#10 (2.9/3.0) | 800 LV | 11/1-2 | ±3.1%https://t.co/mx54HHoyKb pic.twitter.com/PRT6bPW6ST
And they aren't the only ones being critical.
Iowa Republicans are leading in early voting for the first time in decades, and have increased our voter registration advantage by 130,000+.
— Kim Reynolds (@KimReynoldsIA) November 3, 2024
President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and turnout our friends. Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!
Des Moines Register has a history of this, claiming the race was tied in 2020 when Trump won the state by 8 points. Back to the same playbook once again. pic.twitter.com/rnSZeTyytv
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) November 3, 2024
The Des Moines Register has been wrong before, and Iowans will prove it wrong again!
— Joni Ernst (@joniernst) November 3, 2024
We need a fighter back in the White House, and Iowa knows Donald Trump is the one for the job.
Grab your friends and neighbors — we need you to show up and VOTE for Trump-Vance, folks!
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