The New York Times engaged in a regular, if sporadic, conversation with 13 young, undecided voters over the course of the 2024 election cycle – the oldest of whom was 27. Two of them ended up supporting Kamala Harris. Seven voted for Trump. The rest supported other candidates or wrote in different options. Over the course of a wide-ranging, post-election discussion with this group, a few themes emerged. First, the word "phony" was applied to Harris, over and over again. Another voter called her campaign "empty." Second, much of the support for Trump was grudging or reluctant, but his voters ultimately pulled the trigger for him, often despite a sense that they were heavily outnumbered within their social groups. Third, while Tim Walz was barely mentioned by anyone at all (though several mentions of Josh Shapiro not being the pick suggests dissatisfaction with Walz), Trump's running mate was mentioned. A lot. Read on.
When Vance was selected by Trump at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, many people were critical of the choice. I saw it as a mixed bag and said so publicly. Vance didn't have the smoothest rollout, struggled to find his footing in the early days, and was welcomed into the race with historically poor favorability numbers. Look at some of these headlines from over the summer – and based on my tweet, you can see where this is headed:
How it started / How it's going for JD Vance. He entered the race with the worst favorability ratings of any VP pick in the modern polling era. He ended the campaign as the *only* candidate on either major ticket with a *positive* favorability score among the electorate.… pic.twitter.com/hFxg5V6bOU
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 13, 2024
If JD Vance's popularity in his home region (-16 pts) is any sign, it won't get better for Vance nationally (where he's historically unpopular).
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 26, 2024
Also, Vance's favorable rating is just 5% with undecideds (i.e. not for Harris/Trump) in the prez race. His unfavorable rating is 29%. pic.twitter.com/WmDhN1vchl
Then things started to change. Vance hit a stride. He found his voice. He thrived during media interviews, in which he was very focused and conversant, ran circles around journalists, and did so without coming across as too aggressive or dour. His big breakout was the Vice Presidential debate, which drew high ratings and allowed him to dispel the "weird right-wing gargoyle" image that Democrats and media had been painting for months. The "weird" descriptor, ironically, was coined by Tim Walz, which helped earn Walz an inside track onto Harris' ticket. Oops. Vance clearly won the debate, and his favorability jumped dramatically among those who watched. By the end of the campaign, he'd pulled off quite an impressive feat, given where he'd started back in July:
And in the end @JDVance got a higher favorability rating than @GovTimWalz according to CNN exit polls
— Nuance Bro (@NuanceBro) November 10, 2024
Vance +1
Walz -2 pic.twitter.com/tq3SlfGLKa
CNN National Exit Polls: Favorability Ratings
— Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) November 11, 2024
Donald Trump: 46/53
Kamala Harris: 47/52
Tim Walz: 45/47
JD Vance: 47/46
How did he turn things around? He performed. He did interviews and did them well. His superb debate showing seems to have actually mattered. And the coterie of young voters the Times tracked gave him rave reviews. A sampling:
“I can’t believe it, but I did end up voting for Donald Trump,” said Abigail, a 23-year-old Virginian who backed Mr. Biden last time. She felt Mr. Trump was a strong leader, liked his choice of JD Vance and felt Democrats made assumptions based on gender. "I made that decision when I saw JD Vance’s interview with The New York Times. He is the future of the Republican Party. I’m more voting for Vance than I am for Trump."
George, 21, Ga., white, student, didn't vote in 2020: "I voted for Donald Trump. Like Abigail, I was really impressed with JD Vance, especially during the V.P. debate."
McLane, 25, D.C., white, legal field, wrote in Romney in 2020: "I shocked myself and voted for Trump. No one tell my family. I was so impressed by JD Vance, the way he carried himself and how normal he appeared. I think I became radicalized on the men and women’s sports issue. The ad that said, “Kamala represents they/them. Trump represents you,” that was so compelling. While Trump is deranged, he represented normalcy somehow to me."Lillian, 27, Va., white, digital advertising, voted Trump in 2020: I think that Donald Trump or JD Vance should go on “Joe Rogan” regularly. That would be a cool way to check in and give a progress update.
Even one voter who ultimately didn't end up pulling the lever for Trump said Vance's inclusion on the ticket tempted her:
Laura, 20, Md., white, legal intern, didn't vote in 2020: "I did consider voting for Trump when I saw Vance. I hope to see more of him in the future."
In general, the more voters heard from Kamala Harris, the less impressed they were. The opposite was true of Vance. I'll leave you with a few comments from these under-30 voters just torching the so-called "news" media:
Lillian: "I voted for Trump and made that decision the same day the mainstream media was having a meltdown after the Madison Square Garden rally. I also saw an ad from Democrats about abortion misinformation that really made me upset. I said, “You know what? I’m going to vote for Trump. Everybody hates him. They’re lying about pregnancies. Let’s just do it.”
Abigail, 23, Va., white, graduate assistant, voted Biden in 2020: "I saw how the media has become so corrupted in their cause against Trump. There was that Trump clip of him saying: Put Cheney in front of a bunch of shooters. But he wasn’t actually implying Cheney should be shot. I cannot vote for an establishment that just thinks it’s OK to lie to us...I hope that in four years, the mainstream media wakes up and sees everybody is fine and stops calling Republicans fascists just because they disagree with them."
Joseph, 24, S.C., white, high school teacher, voted Biden in 2020: "The mainstream media was carrying Kamala Harris’s water. We need a check on the president to have a healthy democracy. If Kamala Harris was elected, there wouldn’t be a check on her from the media."
Jack, 22, N.Y., white, underwriter, voted Biden in 2020: "I think the press really has a double standard when it comes to Trump versus Harris or just the Democrats in general. We saw it with the 'garbage' comment by Biden. That was kind of just glossed over. Seeing people on MSNBC and even The Times, unfortunately, saying Kamala ran a flawless campaign. Maybe it’s because Trump actually had substance and Kamala just ran on joy."
Ayshah, 21, Iowa, South Asian, student, didn't vote in 2020: "Most people don’t read the whole articles. They read the headlines and form their own opinion, and the headlines are often very anti-Trump."
Mark, 24, Calif., Black, chef, voted Biden in 2020: "They go after Trump and never went after Kamala. They have their own biases. And they let it seep into their coverage of the election."
George, 21, Ga., white, student, didn't vote in 2020: "I don’t think there is a single mainstream news outlet besides The Wall Street Journal that even pretends not to have a source of bias. Seeing The Washington Post’s reaction to them not endorsing a candidate — people resigning — it’s hell on Earth over there. And The New York Times is just clearly biased. Everyone is just so not fair to Trump."
Absolutely brutal assessments of the media, and a string of wins for Vance. And those dynamics are undoubtedly related.
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