Vance Won...and It Wasn't Even Close

Ohio Senator JD Vance won the Vice Presidential debate against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz last night, in my view, and it wasn't particularly close. Vance was very well prepared, his intelligence and deftness glittered throughout the nearly two-hour exchange, and -- perhaps most importantly -- his normalcy and empathy helped dispel the dark, negative caricature Democrats and their media allies have painted of him. As someone with an acute distaste for Walz, I would selfishly have loved to watch Vance skewer his opponent over his extreme record and blizzard of lies. But that would have been a waste of time and energy, for the most part. Vance's priorities needed to be offering a reassuring and pleasant impression to wavering voters, and relentlessly hammering Kamala Harris on her record. And that's precisely what he did. This was one of Vance's best moments, in which he shrewdly expressed sympathy for Walz's spin efforts while drawing a stark contrast between the two candidates at the top of each ticket:

"You've got a tough job here. You've got to pretend that Donald Trump didn't deliver rising take home pay, which of course he did. You've got to pretend that Donald Trump didn't deliver lower inflation, which of course he did. And then you've got to defend Kamala Harris's… pic.twitter.com/s8hvHOxPNB
— JD Vance (@JDVance) October 2, 2024

In his lone debate against Harris, Trump squandered opportunities to call Harris out for her failures as the incumbent, saving that crucial point for his closing statement. Vance did not repeat the mistake. Indeed, he set out to weave the point into his answers as often as possible, ramming it home one last time in his parting remarks:

Whether you're rich or poor, you ought to be able to afford a nice meal and live in a safe neighborhood, but the American people are struggling due to our broken leadership.

Donald Trump has proven his ability to lead this country. I'd ask that you please give him your vote. pic.twitter.com/0D9O0SGjLF
— JD Vance (@JDVance) October 2, 2024

The CBS moderators were not as bad and biased as ABC's were several weeks ago, which is a low bar. But the deck was once again stacked against the lone Republican in the room. This Republican, however, was ready for it and transcended it. Overall, the subjects chosen and the questions asked favored Democrats' preferred issue sets, including an absurd and lengthy series on climate change near the very beginning of the evening. At one point, on immigration, CBS quasi-fact-checked Vance on Haitians in Springfield, Ohio -- and Vance quite rightly, calmly explained why that interjection was actually misleading. They literally cut his mic off. Even Chris Cuomo was blown away by this decision (he played the moment in question within this clip):

Walz was rough out of the gate. He struggled through his first answer, flubbed a few other points along the way, and often looked uncomfortable and out of sorts. Some of his whoppers, including on the border crisis and abortion, were shameless. When he was called out for just one of his many bizarre lies about his biography, he launched into an incoherent answer about his life story. When CBS followed up, he had nothing:

JUST IN: Tim Walz turns into a stumbling mess, calls himself a 'knucklehead' after he was confronted about the lie that he was in Hong Kong in 1989 during Tiananmen.

After going on a 2-minute rant about how good of a guy he is, Walz finally answered the question.

Walz has… pic.twitter.com/rJ324rYytH
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024

At another point, Walz accidentally said that he'd befriended school shooters, when he seemed to mean school shooting victims or loved ones. That can be chalked up as an innocent misstatement, which stands in contrast to the litany of flagrant falsehoods Walz has tried to shrug off as 'bad grammar,' or being 'emotional' or a 'knucklehead:'

See, this is useful.

Walz saying he’s become friends with school shooters, when he meant victims, is an innocent misstatement.

Repeatedly lying about his military rank, his DUI, IVF and Hong Kong/Tiananmen Square are not innocent misstatements.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 2, 2024

Media commentators and even some Democrats immediately acknowledged that Vance had the better night. One focus group split 12-2 for Vance. CBS' own snap poll showed a very narrow Vance win -- essentially a draw. CNN's rapid poll also gave Vance a super close win. (UPDATE: Two more focus groups and a third poll also called Vance the winner). One of the critiques, even from friendly media, was that Walz didn't seem prepared to handle any sort of adversarial environment. When you hide from the press, as Harris and Walz have, that's one of the repercussions. Now, will any of this matter or 'move the needle'? Generally, I'd say no. But, in an extremely close election, having a good debate is certainly better than the alternative. To the extent that Vance reassured some voters who might want Trump policies back, but are reticent about Trump himself, that could be an advantage -- especially since this is likely the largest scheduled, televised political event before the election.