By this point, you've seen the rumors and reports. It started early in the week, when RFK Jr.'s running made appeared on a podcast and openly discussed the possibility of her ticket dropping out of the race -- and possibly 'joining forces' with Trump -- to help prevent a Harris presidency. With speculation mounting, Kennedy's team announced it will hold an event in Arizona tomorrow, at which he will discuss the state of his campaign. That alone would tend to indicate his quixotic pursuit of the White House will soon come to a close. Yesterday, news reports emerged that RFK has indeed decided to quit the race, with a possibility of endorsing Trump on his way out the door.
For what it's worth, he's been hitting the Democrats on 'democracy,' as they've been working hard to keep other candidates (including Cornell West) off the ballot wherever possible:
My father and my uncle were members of a Democratic Party that was at the forefront of making sure that every American could vote for the candidate they wanted to.
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) August 21, 2024
Today’s Democratic Party is doing the opposite. pic.twitter.com/6K3XZ7bXsj
Perhaps not coincidentally, Kennedy will make his statement tomorrow mere miles from where Trump is slated to hold a rally a few hours later. Asked about the prospect of RFK coming into the fold, Trump unsurprisingly said he'd welcome the support:
'I Would Be Honored': Trump Says He'd Welcome RFK Jr Endorsement After Dems 'Treated Him Very Badly' pic.twitter.com/4pMAZUzMAs
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 22, 2024
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the RFK exit-endorsement does come to pass (it's unclear whether there would be strings attached, such as for a slot in a would-be second Trump administration). Then what? Right after the RNC, Joe Biden was finally forced out of the race, totally transforming the 2024 contest and giving the Democrats a very real shot at winning a battle they were on track to lose. This wouldn't be nearly as seismic a development, of course, but RFK jumping onto the Trump train and stepping on the end of the DNC would garner a lot of attention. Would Kennedy's supporters heed his potential advice to support Trump? A recent New York Times/Siena poll suggests that quite of a few of them may be inclined to do so. In that survey, when pushed, 41 percent of RFK backers said they'd move to Trump, versus 27 percent to Harris. Other polling has suggested the split may be closer to even. This recent national poll, for what it's worth, shows movement toward Trump once third party and undecided leaners are pushed:
#New General Election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 22, 2024
🔵 Harris 46% (+2)
🔴 Trump 44%
🟡 Kennedy 9%
H2H
🔴 Trump 51% (+2)
🔵 Harris 49%
HarrisX #C - 1011 RV - 8/3
This was in the field weeks ago, and RFK at nine percent seems high, but it's at least a bit more evidence that Trump could benefit from Kennedy's exit and/or endorsement. Perhaps things could shift. Maybe it would be a wash. Or maybe Trump could get a little bump from the Kennedy people. Even one point could prove decisive in a very close election.
