MIAMI, FLORIDA - Last night's third Republican presidntial debate of the 2024 cycle, moderated by NBC News anchors and the Salem Radio Network's Hugh Hewitt, got a bit spicy at times. Compared to the previous few forums, this one was less of a free-for-all, as the rules were generally respected and enforced. Those rules didn't automatically allow candidates criticized by name to promptly respond, which helped maintain more order, but also took something away from the point of a debate. Overall, my impression was that once again, though several candidates helped themselves and looked the part, the forum did not alter the race in any significant way, thus benefiting the absent frontrunner, Donald Trump. The conservative South Florida voters I watched the event with agreed:
Attended a debate watch party hosted by @AFPhq & @LIBREinitiative in Miami tonight. Afterwards, I asked the crowd two Q’s. (1) Who won? Home cooking for DeSantis — more than half the hands. Second most hands for Haley. A few for Vivek. None for others.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 9, 2023
Second Q: Did anything…
People were eager to share their views on who won, with Ron DeSantis unsurprisingly commanding the most support in his home state. But in that second question, I asked the room whether the previous two hours had changed the trajectory of the contest in any meaningful way. Not even a single hand went up to say 'yes;' every single raised hand was for 'no.' And in a race that Trump leads by a massive margin, that's really the biggest takeaway -- perhaps the only real takeaway -- whether one likes it or not. Whether voters in Iowa agree is an important question, which we'll address below. For his part, the former president held a counter-programming event in Florida, at which he accepted the endorsement of Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders, who served as his White House Press Secretary.
As for last evening's proceedings, DeSantis and Haley got off to hot starts with strong opening answers. The subject matter focused mostly on foreign policy for the first half of the debate, with a question about the economy (by far the top issue for voters) not coming until 9:07pm ET, more than an hour in. The two leading contenders on stage sparred a few times over China and energy, but neither exchange was uncivil or particularly impactful. The most memorable moment came when Vivek Ramaswamy, whose opening answer scorching the RNC and NBC drew virtual and literal applause from some conservatives, invoked Haley's daughter during a discussion of TikTok. Haley reacted harshly, not without reason:
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Ramaswamy references Nikki Haley's daughter using TikTok despite the former UN ambassador wanting to ban it.
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) November 9, 2023
Haley fires back and also calls Ramaswamy "scum." pic.twitter.com/J46Rvux2Zg
The TikTok discussion is an important one, given the app's espionage capacity on behalf of the CCP -- and as we've seen within the last month, its ability to pump dangerous propaganda onto young Americans' screens. To many, forcing its sale in order for its algorithms to be controlled in the US, or banning it entirely, is the obvious course of action. Ramaswamy, who positions himself as a China hawk, recently said he was persuaded by a prominent influencer to join and engage on the platform. Whether conservatives should so until such time as a major change is made, so as not to cede the playing field to the Left, is a legitimate question. Bringing a rival's child into it, however, felt tacky, and didn't go over well in the room.
And while there were good and substantive answers on a host of topics, one of the only portions of the evening that could have some lasting value was the short segment on abortion. Given the GOP's struggles on the issue, contributing to several losses and general consternation, the candidates' comments on the issue were highly relevant. Tim Scott gave the most traditional pro-life answer. Chris Christie made a legal case about leaving the issue to states. But Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy all offered nuanced and personal pro-life responses that offered some conciliatory language, made an emotional case against abortion, and telegraphed reasonableness. DeSantis' story about a girl who was nearly aborted growing up to become a high-level judicial appointment in Florida was powerful example. Haley's reality check about what's realistic in Washington, while explicitly appealing to people across the spectrum on the issue, was almost the same verbatim answer she gave in the first debate. It's a good and important one. And it takes on renewed urgency on the heels of Tuesday's electoral setbacks. And Ramaswamy stressed how flat-footed and ineffectively reactive many Republicans have been, allowing the other side to set the agenda.
Finally, if this race is ever going to get truly competitive, it will likely be up to early state voters to set that tone. Polling shows Trump is comfortably ahead in all of them. But are GOP voters fully settled on him, especially given his legal troubles, and Democrats' success in using his name to motivate their own base? The answer seems to be yes, for the most part, but time will tell. There's at least some hesitancy, plus an appetite for him to more fully engage in the nominating process among some Iowans:
WOW. Trump is in serious trouble in Iowa.
— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) November 9, 2023
Moderator: “12 of the 13 voted for Trump. How many of you are ready to vote for Trump in the Iowa caucuses?”
Only two raise their hands. pic.twitter.com/fAnwOLs1IX
NBC focus group Iowa voter still leans Trump, but you can hear in her voice that she's starting to be swayed by DeSantis. This is how elections are won, by gradually performing well and changing minds.
— Scott Morefield (@SKMorefield) November 9, 2023
Also note the end where everyone in the room wanted Trump to participate in… pic.twitter.com/NrfWlAw73f
The next debate, which Trump is also expected to skip, will take place in early December, hosted in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Republican voters begin making their selections in mid-January, starting with the Iowa caucuses. I'll leave you with a few examples of why much of the "fact checking" industry is so broken and cringeworthy:
NBC is basically saying "Ron didn't singlehandedly pilot the plane, therefore this is half true" https://t.co/mtnDz8xPkK
— John Hasson (@SonofHas) November 9, 2023
Almost certainly true, actually. https://t.co/JNHOyJYHKe
— Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) November 9, 2023
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