Last week, we reviewed a trio of new 2020 presidential polls, which produced strikingly different results. A CNN survey gave challenger Joe Biden a large lead, a Monmouth poll showed Biden holding a modest lead, and Fox News' latest pointed to an exact tie. More data has come in since then, with the former Vice President opening up an average lead of more than five points nationally, but new numbers from Pew indicate the race remains extremely competitive:
With about seven months until the general election, similar shares of registered voters say they would vote for Joe Biden (47%) or Donald Trump (45%) if the election were held today; 8% of voters say they wouldn’t vote for either or would vote for someone else...Trump has a slight advantage among men (49% to 43%), while Biden leads among women (50% to 41%). Slightly more than half of white voters say they would vote for Trump (55%), while black and Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly likely to say they would vote for Biden if the election were held today (76% and 63%, respectively).
For Trump to win, he's probably going to have to pull stronger margins among whites (see this) and men. Biden will need to do substantially better among African-Americans than 76 percent. Biden holds a strong lead among younger voters, but that cohort is also the most likely to say that "differences will keep many Democrats from supporting Biden" in the fall. What is most interesting to me are the bars at the very bottom of this infographic: