My overall inclination on the question posed in the headline is, no. For the reasons we've addressed in a number of analyses, former Vice President Joe Biden's 2020 presidential campaign has been in free fall, hampered by brutal fourth and fifth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively. His national lead is also gone, with prominent supporters and donors reportedly fretting. That being said, what if Biden were to finish, say, second in Nevada, then still won South Carolina? Is that at least plausible? Sure it is:
#Navada @AARP/@reviewjournal Poll (2/11-13):
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 14, 2020
Sanders 25
Biden 18%
Warren 13%
Steyer 11%
Buttigieg 10%
Klobuchar 10%
Post-NH South Carolina poll!
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 14, 2020
Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Steyer 14%
Buttigieg 8%
Amy Klobuchar 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Biden's lead is down quite a bit. But this is also hardly catastrophic for him.https://t.co/5E3gGTUXbI
Biden's lead is clearly diminished in his "firewall" state, and he's still trailing Sanders in the Silver State. But these aren't exactly the numbers of a campaign that has totally crashed and burned. Hope is still alive. These numbers from delegate-rich states with upcoming nominating contests show that Biden is -- at least for now -- still in the thick of things. Have a look:
Poll of #Florida’s 3/17 Democratic presidential primary:@MikeBloomberg 27%@JoeBiden 26%@PeteButtigieg 11%@BernieSanders 10%@amyklobuchar 9%@ElizabethWarren 5%@TomSteyer 1%
— Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) February 14, 2020
Undecided 11%#FlaPol https://t.co/xaQSRslqSY
#Texas, UT/@TexasTribune Poll:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) February 14, 2020
Sanders 24
Biden 22
Warren 15
Bloomberg 10
Buttigieg 7
Yang 6
Klobuchar 3
Steyer 3
Gabbard 2
(Conducted Jan 31-Feb 9)
NEW @wsbtv/ Landmark Communications poll of the Democratic presidential primary in Georgia
— Niles Francis (@NilesGApol) February 13, 2020
Biden: 32.1%
Sanders: 14.2%
Bloomberg: 14%
Buttigieg: 4.9%
Warren: 3.7%
Klobuchar: 3%
Steyer: 1.5%
Gabbard: 0.8%
UNDECIDED: 25.8%
Georgia's primary is on March 24. #gapol pic.twitter.com/cHKDuSkIZ4
One word of caution on those Texas stats: That survey was in the field before Biden got waxed in New Hampshire. It stands to reason that Sanders (the NH victor) has enhanced his standing in the Lone Star State, while the former VP very well may have shed some support. Nevertheless, Biden scooped up significant delegate hauls in some of these places, he could very much be in the game. Then again, the latest poll out of California ranked him in fifth place and barely cracking into double digits. It's a bumpy road ahead for him. The only way I can envision Biden reclaiming his frontrunner status is if Buttigieg and Klobuchar fail to maintain their momentum, and Michael Bloomberg falls apart. Biden may get a serious second look, almost by default or process of elimination. May I remind you that the media's shiny object billionaire is extremely vulnerable in a Democratic primary. He's a proverbial buffet of oppo research:
NEW: In a July 2010 appearance, Mike Bloomberg derided Obamacare as "a disgrace," saying it would do "nothing to fix the big health care problems in this country." He added the law "just created another program that's going to cost a lot of money."https://t.co/WkJNcO3r0J pic.twitter.com/SlVl6fD6Ys
— andrew kaczynski?? (@KFILE) February 16, 2020
NEW: As Michael Bloomberg defended stop-and-frisk, he likened NY’s ACLU to the NRA. He did the same with the teacher’s union, something Randi Weingarten at the time called “disgusting.” https://t.co/mWxzaZO2K4
— Natasha Korecki (@natashakorecki) February 16, 2020
Post Investigation: Inside Michael Bloomberg’s 30-year battle to silence women who alleged he made crude, insulting comments https://t.co/flzc9qf9jd
— Marc Fisher (@mffisher) February 15, 2020
Verbatim of @BernieSanders going after Bloomberg in Las Vegas just now pic.twitter.com/6qsxpONT5u
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 16, 2020
But he's spending everyone else under the table, and it's not even close:
Here's a look at ad spending through today (including future reservations:
— David Wright (@DavidWright_7) February 16, 2020
Bloomberg: $417.7 million
Steyer: $193.6 million
Sanders: $41.8 million
Buttigieg: $40 millon
Warren: $21.4 million
Biden: $12.3 million
Klobuchar: $10.6 million
Gabbard $5.4 million
I'll leave you with a dash of cold water on the notion that the "moderate" lane needs to consolidate to stop Bernie. Could a dramatic consolidation help the Vermont socialist?
#National Democratic Primary, Head-2-Head:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 14, 2020
Sanders 54% (+21)
Klobuchar 33%
.
Sanders 54% (+17)
Buttigieg 37%
.
Sanders 53% (+15)
Bloomberg 38
.
Sanders 48% (+4)
Biden 44%
.
Sanders 44% (+2)
Warren 42%@YouGovUS/@YahooNews 2/12-13 pic.twitter.com/PmqYFO2f7B
And this is just classic Warren:
Warren will be in Seattle, not Nevada, on caucus night. Asked about the message to voters, she said she'll be here during the day "but by nighttime, I'll be in in Washington for a rally there because they're starting to vote." Reminder on what she said about Biden leaving NH: https://t.co/SwnsafhyK7
— Cheyenne Haslett (@cheyennehaslett) February 16, 2020
Ultimately, the biggest obstacle to a Biden comeback, even amid plausible scenarios, is Joe Biden himself. He seems over the hill, and simply is not a good candidate.
