Fox News Poll: Hillary Jumps Out to Double-Digit Lead Over Trump

Posted: Aug 04, 2016 9:45 AM

NBC has her up eight (as does Reuters, which has shed some credibility after changing its methodology midstream), CNN shows her ahead by nine, and now Fox News is out with a fresh poll taken over the weekend that measures Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump expanding ten points. The bounce is real folks. Here's the topline result, followed by some internals. Spoiler alert: Despite one or two silver linings -- which I'll highlight -- the numbers hoist a very dark cloud over the Trump campaign:

Before we go any further, this data comes from Fox's respected bipartisan pollster, which liberals sometimes mindlessly dismiss as "biased" (because "Faux News!") when its findings upset them. The partisan sample in the national survey is D+6, which is completely reasonable based on the last two presidential cycles. I'll begin with the limited good news for Trump: The top two issue priorities for voters are jobs and the economy, and terrorism and national security. Trump narrowly leads Clinton on the former, and is tied with her on the latter. He also has a lead on destroying ISIS and reducing the federal deficit. That is where the positivity ends for Team Trump. She holds advantages ranging from modest to massive on every other issue tested: Foreign policy, healthcare, immigration, Supreme Court nominees, education, race relations, drug addiction, climate change, nuclear weapons, and protecting the constitution. On candidate characteristics, things get worse:

Qualified to be President? Hillary +30, Trump -15

Honest and Trustworthy? Hillary -25, Trump -26

Presidential temperament? Hillary +30, Trump -24

Knowledge to be President: Hillary +46, Trump -19

He has somehow overtaken this women on untrustworthiness.  In an indication of how unpopular both candidates are among their one party's voters, large percentages of each partisan group say they'd prefer someone else as their nominee.  Forty-five percent of Democrats said they'd prefer Sanders or another person, while roughly half of Republicans would take another option over Trump at this stage.  A slim majority of respondents say they're voting against the other person, as opposed to in favor of their preferred pick.  This is especially true of Trump voters.  In the overall head-to-head presidential ballot contest, Clinton's ten-point lead is fueled by several factors.  This is a big one:

At the moment, she is unifying her party in a way that he is not. The only major swing demo keeping this from being a total blowout poll is independents, who side with the GOP ticket by eight points -- with fully 22 percent choosing a third party or expecting to stay home. Trump is ahead with men by just five points and whites by ten points, half of Mitt Romney's victory margin among that group. Among the so-called Obama coalition?

Last but not least, Trump's mind-scrambling, multi-news-cycle feud with the gold star parents of a slain Muslim US soldier has gone...very badly for the presidential candidate. Surprise:

That's not terribly far off from Bloomberg's new poll on the question, which showed almost an identically small fraction of voters approving of his posture vis-a-vis Mr. and Mrs. Khan. Interestingly, the same survey shows Americans roughly split down the middle on Trump's 'temporary Muslim immigration ban' proposal -- which has since been revised to be focus on migrants or visitors from countries with an established jihadist problem.  I'd imagine the new iteration would be even more politically popular.  Imagine if Trump had simply responded to Mr. Khan's speech with an answer like this:  "I have immense respect for all of our gold star families and honor the powerful sacrifice the Khan's brave son made for our country.  We owe their family a great debt of gratitude, and of course they're entitled to their opinions.  I happen to believe that Mr. Khan misunderstands my position on the temporary immigration pause.  I'm not a lifelong politician, so yes, I've deliberated and refined my proposal to target countries with real terrorism problems.  We have to be a lot more careful and smarter about who we're letting into the country.  Just like the Khan's son, I want to protect the American people."  Instead, we got this.  Which helped trigger this week's GOP freakout.