LOL: New Poll Shows Obama Ahead By Ten Points...with a D+19 Sample

Guy Benson | August 02, 2012 4:47 PM

Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney. This is largely unchanged from earlier in July and consistent with polling over the course of this year. Across eight Pew Research Center surveys since January, Obama has led Romney by between four and 12 percentage points. Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year’s key battleground states. While the data does not allow a state-by-state analysis, the overall balance of support in these closely contested states has remained level in recent months, with Obama slightly ahead, but neither candidate holding a significant advantage.

Romney's losing by ten nationally! Panic! The partisan sample of this poll is *D+19.* This is fantasyland. The 2008 electorate was D+7; Pew tacks on an additional 12 percentage points, and concocts a large Obama lead. There's no point in breaking down this poll any further. Pew is churning out results that make them feel good at this point, which doesn't merit serious scrutiny. Two questions. (1) How is Obama only leading by 4 points in swing states with such a mind-blowing sample in his favor? (2) Isn't it interesting that this poll shows Romney leading with independents? I'll leave you with another new national poll from The Economist and YouGov. It also features an absurd sample (D+10 / D+8 with leaners), and it surveys adults -- not registered or likely voters -- which tends to benefit Democrats. And yet...

15) Who will you vote for in the 2012 Presidential election? Asked of registered voters. Respondents who initially answered 'not sure' were then asked whom they would support if they had to choose. Those who answered ’Probably Obama’ or 'Probably Romney' to the follow-up question are considered 'leaners.' Leaners Included:

Barack Obama 44%
Mitt Romney 46%
Other 6%
Not sure 4%