Shock Poll: Gillibrand's Lead Down to 1 in NY Senate Race? UPDATE: Poll Whiplash!

Guy Benson
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Posted: Sep 23, 2010 11:03 AM
Take another sip of coffee, rub your eyes, and check that headline again.  Yup, you read it right--now onto the data:

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton's term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, with Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.

At this point, would it be considered purge-worthy blasphemy to suggest that perhaps grassroots financial support ought to be redirected from Christine O'Donnell to Joe DioGuardi?  (Relax, RINO hunters, he's one of us).

A few other noteworthy elements of this poll:

- It shows Chuck Schumer enjoying a very comfortable 21-point lead among the exact same group of voters.  That may be bad news for people who can't stand Chuck Schumer, but it's good news for those who hope this new poll is accurate (I suspect these groups may overlap).  If the sample were screwy and skewed too far right, you'd expect to see both Gillibrand and Schumer in artificially close races.  They're not, which points to Gillibrand's unique vulnerability.

- It confirms the tightening of the gubernatorial race, which Quinnipiac first detected yesterday.  In this poll, Paladino is within single-digits, 49-40.


UPDATE (Slide to the Left): Siena has released a poll of New York voters showing both Cuomo and Gillibrand coasting by huge margins.

UPDATE II (Slide to the Right): Quinnipiac's brand new results resemble the Survey USA numbers, with DioGuardi within 6.

As you recover from your poll-induced whiplash, consider this:  If the DSCC wants to believe the Siena numbers (which Jim Geragthy points out are drawn from registered, rather than likely, voters) and ignore the others, that's their call.  But in a volatile and anti-Democratic election cycle, are they willing to take that chance?  Two statewide NY Democrats now appear to be vulnerable (Gillibrand and Cuomo), and their margins of victory--or defeat, for that matter--could have major implications down ballot.  Decision time: National Democrats can either save their money and hope for the best, or they'd better start breaking out a ton of cash for ad buys in a very expensive media state.  Tick tock, Dems.