Boehner: The GOP Has 2-to-1 Odds to Keep their House Majority

Posted: Apr 24, 2012 8:30 AM

In summary: Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is "feeling better" about the Democrats chances to retake the House because of Mitt Romney's campaign antics; Majority Leader Eric Cantor is feeling "bullish" about the GOP's prospects to keep and even gain seats; and, to complete the gamut of top House leadership, Speaker John Boehner estimates the GOP has about a one-in-three chance of losing their majority.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Monday that his party faces a “real challenge” in holding on to its majority in the House. 

In an interview with Fox News that is scheduled to air Tuesday, Boehner predicted the GOP will keep control of the House, but sounded less certain than many of his Republican colleagues — and a number of nonpartisan prognosticators.

“I believe that we will, but we’ve got a real challenge,” he said when asked if Republicans will maintain control of the lower chamber. ...

“I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again but there’s a 1-in-3 chance that we could lose, and I’m being myself, frank. We’ve got a big challenge and we’ve got work to do,” he said.

While the House elections are often thought of as a sure thing for the GOP, that outcome relies upon steady campaign donations as a constant variable -- and for the entire Republican party to appear too confident and optimistic about their prospects doesn't drum up the necessary feelings of urgency that inspire major donations. Sounds like Boehner is issuing a friendly reminder to potential donors that, hey, this is only a safe bet if you keep the cash coming!

Is America Becoming Sinicized?
Victor Davis Hanson