While NPR may have jumped the gun today by publishing a premature report about Justice Samuel Alito’s retirement, the odds that he steps down soon still appear high. He is the second-oldest member of the Supreme Court at 76, behind Justice Clarence Thomas, who is 78.
NEW - NPR published a story claiming to report that Justice Samuel Alito was retiring.
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 30, 2026
They are now facing massive criticism after issuing a retraction 10 minutes later.
Rough. pic.twitter.com/CsAmNUYKVU
Irresponsible. https://t.co/PFQQYgbptu pic.twitter.com/P89Zw725OP
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 30, 2026
Here is the full article announcing Justice Samuel Alito’s retirement, which @NPR quickly retracted: pic.twitter.com/vkPhxdxBvX
— Joe Chalfant (@JoeChalfant) June 30, 2026
According to prediction markets, there is a 67 percent chance that Justice Alito retires this year, with some forecasts placing the move well before January 1, 2027. Although the timing is still debated, most observers expect it sometime this year, which could give President Trump his fourth Supreme Court nomination.
Despite NPR mistakenly publishing an article stating that Justice Samuel Alito is retiring, he still has a 41% of retiring in 2026 Per @Kalshi pic.twitter.com/LyaQp4qaop
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) June 30, 2026
Justice Alito is widely seen as one of the Court’s most conservative members, often paired with Justice Thomas. His dissents and votes in recent high-profile cases have kept him at the center of the Court’s most consequential conservative bloc.
If Alito were to retire, it would be a major blow to conservatives on the Court, but it would also give President Trump another chance to nominate a justice in his own mold. That prospect is especially salient because Trump’s last pick, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, has drawn sharp criticism from some conservatives who view her as less dependable than expected.
One thing remains clear, however, that if any justice plans to retire, they need to do so before the end of Trump’s second term if conservatives want to preserve their current majority.
