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Update: Polls Show Brown With Modest Lead Over Warren

A second poll conducted in February shows Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) with a comfortable lead over Massachusetts U.S. Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee.


The poll of 456 voters, conducted by Opinion Dynamics of Cambridge, shows Brown leading Warren 52 percent to 42 percent in a theoretical match-up. Another 1 percent of voters said they were leaning toward Warren.

The poll was conducted for Mass Insight Global Partnerships, a consultant that runs private-public partnerships. Mass Insight released the results to its clients this morning. The poll included a variety of questions for the private use of the firm’s clients, which include universities and businesses.

The Globe obtained the results of a section devoted to political questions. The firm polled a total of 500 residents by phone, but included only 456 registered voters in its results for the political questions.

Although the survey was conducted before the Senator publicly denounced the Obama administration’s controversial contraceptive mandate – a point of contention in the campaign – Team Brown must be breathing a little easier. As mentioned above, this is the second poll released this month showing Scott Brown as the frontrunner with near double-digit leads. That being said, Elizabeth Warren has proven to be an adept campaigner who can evidently fill her coffers and attract a plurality of voters.

In the interim, Warren's visibility has climbed. Among a broader sample of 500 residents, 40 percent in October said they had never heard of her; that number fell to 22 in the recent survey. Her favorable ratings moved in smaller increments, from 28 percent to 40 percent.

In the larger sample, Warren showed more strength among the more educated. Among college graduates, 47 percent reported a positive opinion of her, while 28 percent of those with a high school degree or less and 35 percent of those with some college education viewed her positively.


Nevertheless, the fact is Scott Brown remains popular in Massachusetts. For instance, according to the survey, 54 percent of voters view him in a favorable light. Brown, on the other hand, continues to attract a large number of Bay Staters from across the political spectrum. (He received support from 20 percent of Democrats). His lead, however, remains somewhat tenuous given the uncertainty over the ongoing controversy that stipulates Catholic organizations must provide contraception coverage to their employees. Both candidates have sparred recently over this hot button issue, which I suspect will be a focal point of the campaign.

In any case, I’ll leave you with this: The latest GOP video attacking Elizabeth Warren for her serial hypocrisy and well-documented out-of-state campaign financing, courtesy of the Massachusetts Republican Party. Enjoy.

UPDATE: On Thursday, a new Rasmussen Reports poll dropped indicating Scott Brown is still holding on to his frontrunner status:

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Brown picking up 49% of the vote to Warren’s 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Brown draws stronger support from Massachusetts Republicans (92%) than Warren does from voters in her party (75%). Among voters in the state not affiliated with either of the major political parties, Brown leads 67% to 29%.

Both candidates are well known to Massachusetts voters. Brown is viewed favorably by 60%, including 26% who view him Very Favorably. Thirty-seven percent (37%) share an unfavorable opinion of Brown, with 17% who view him Very Unfavorably.

Warren’s reviews are 49% favorable, 44% unfavorable. These numbers include Very Favorable reviews from 26% and Very Unfavorable marks from 26%.


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