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Tipsheet

The Obama Coalition Delivered for McAuliffe

If you wanted to know whether Democrats will be able to recreate President Obama-like turnout levels among Democratic-base voters without Obama at the top of the ballot, Terry McAuliffe's win in Virginia yesterday seems to suggest, yes.

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Yes, McAuliffe did underperform in turing out women (a two point drop) and young voters (a six point drop), but he matched Obama in turing out African-American voters, who provided more than enough votes to secure McAuliffe's two percent margin.

In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell lost to Creigh Deeds among African-Americans by a 90 percent to 9 percent margin. But African-Americans made up only 16 percent of the electorate.

In 2012, Mitt Romney lost to Obama by an identical 90 percent to 9 percent margin, but African-Americans made up 20 percent of the electorate.

In 2013, Cuccinelli again lost African-Americans by an almost identical 90 percent to 8 percent margin. But McAuliffe was able to hold Obama's turnout level, ensuring that 20 percent of the electorate was African American.

With 2.2 million votes cast, the difference between a 20 percent African-American turnout and a 16 percent African-American turnout, is about 100,000 votes. McAuliffe won by just 54,000 votes.

If Democrats can keep turning out African-Americans above Census levels (19.7 percent of Virginians are African-American), 2016 is looking very tough for Republicans.

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