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Tipsheet

A Few Thoughts on the Skewed Polls

Over the past few days, there has been plenty of chatter about how accurate the polls are.  Hugh Hewitt, among others, has established that some pretty dubious assumptions underlie many of the polls that are regularly touted in the MSM as decisive evidence of a pending Obama victory.

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Taken together, the polls purporting to predict a fairly easy Obama victory have the purported effect of enspiriting Obama supporters, and depressing Romney supporters -- presumably leading to heightened turnout among the former, reduced turnout among the latter.  But as the MSM celebrates the supposed Obama leads with an air of "this thing is over," there are two things to keep in mind:

(1) Look at what Obama does, not what the MSM polls say. So Obama has a particular state -- say, Ohio -- locked up with a ten-point lead?  If so, why's he spending so much time and money there? Wouldn't he be doing what he did in 2008, when it became apparent that he would win, i.e., moving his money and attention to more traditionally Republican states in an effort to win a sweeping, Reagan-style reelection and claim a mandate?

(2) Keep in mind the nature of Obama's base. Some of his biggest supporters include young people and minorities, whose participation in 2008 was unprecedented.  When you read the polls assuming that Democrat participation will be even greater than in 2008, also consider this piece, run yesterday by AP ("Election 'Mania' Missing on College Campuses").  What about this AP story: "African-American Christians Waver Over Vote"?

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We hear, day and night, so many tales of doom about the Romney campaign, some so ridiculously overhyped that many in the punditocracy took an obvious parody at face value yesterday.  We hear less about potential problems within the Democrat camp, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.

And it would be a delicious irony if all the MSM hyping of skewed pro-Obama polls ultimately convinced his wavering supporters that the President doesn't "need" their vote, thereby relieving them of any perceived obligation to vote.

The point here isn't to tell anyone that Romney has this election in the bag.  The point is to remind everyone that, given the media's overt sympathies (can you believe the morning shows didn't even report on the new reports of the administration's fatal incompetence in Benghazi?!), we're not getting the real story about how the campaign is going.  So work hard, and pray even harder.

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