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No Complacency

Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen have a piece at Politico comprehensively cataloging and analyzing the various disadvantages -- from a terrible economy to his anti-business bias -- that President Obama will encounter on the road to re-election.

Notably, however, when weighing the President's relative strengths and weaknesses, the reporters overlooked one huge factor that will advantage the President: Media bias. UCLA political science professor Tim Groseclose has found that media bias helps Democrats by about 8-10 points in a typical election. 

What's more, count on most of the press to pull out all the stops for Barack Obama.  Not only would the left-leaning journalists see a potential Obama defeat as deplorably revelatory of America's (supposedly) inherent racism, but also, as Jim Taranto has pointed out,having President Obama labeled a failure will constitute an intolerable blow to the egos and self-images of the self-appointed (liberal elite) guardians of public information and discourse.

So no complacency, people.  Keep in mind the Groseclose study --  it means that, in effect, the GOP has to beat Obama by 9-11 points in an unbiased environment to obtain a victory in a political world still largely shaped by the denizens of the traditional, liberal media.

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