If there is a gold standard for polling in Wisconsin it is the Marquette Law School Poll, which showed Gov. Scott Walker winning his recall election by 6 points before Walker ended up winning by 7.
Today, Marquette released their final poll for Walker's re-election campaign and the news is not good for Democrats. Among likely voters Walker is beating Democrat Mary Burke 50 percent to 43 percent.
Among all registered voters, Walker holds a much narrower 46 percent to 45 percent lead, but Burke's supporters simply are not motivated to turn out. "In the current poll, 93 percent of Republicans say that they are certain to vote," a Marquette Law School press release explains, "while 82 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of independents say the same."
Walker also leads among those who have already voted 43 percent to 42 percent.
The bitter campaign has taken a heavy toll on Burke's favorability in the state. In the last poll, she was still above water among all voters, 36 percent to 35 percent. But now she is firmly underwater among registered voters at 38 percent to 45 percent, and among likely voters she's an abysmal 39 percent to 49 percent.
Walker, meanwhile, has improved his image throughout the election, moving from dead even favorability months age to a 51 percent to 46 percent advantage among likely voters in the most recent poll.
Overall, both registered voters and likely voters believe the state is "on the right track," although likely voters (54 percent) are slightly more likely to believe so than registered voters (52 percent).