Tonight

The Republican Party is likely to win a major victory tomorrow. But I'm not sure how big it will be. A cause for uncertainty is the nature of modern polling. Too many polls are done on the cheap, robotically, these days--and, as Michael Blumentual points out here, more than a few of them don't call cellphone users, who tend to be disproportionately younger. Another cause for uncertainty is the amorphous nature of the Tea Party--it can stage fist-shaking rallies but can it get out the vote as the more proven sectors of the Republic Party, like the evangelical community, can...and how amped are the evangelicals, whom we've not heard much from this year, anyway? A third mitigating factor is the President's relative popularity: 48% favorable v. 48% unfavorable, according to the latest CNN poll*, much better than Clinton or Reagan at a similar moment in their presidencies. A fourth mitigating factor is the continuing unpopularity of the Republicans in Congress (even more unpopular than the Democrats) and widespread public skepticism about their (same old) solutions.

But this is still likely to be a big Republican year. Why?