What’s a deal worth when your “friends” do what they want?
It was well-known in the day that Jim McMahon could drive Bears coach Mike Ditka nuts. In the iconic 1985 season, the Bears were losing to the Minnesota Vikings. McMahon was benched because he had violated one of Ditka’s dictates. He begged to be put in. The coach finally relented, and McMahon, in the space of a couple of plays, brought the Bears to another victory. One can do a split screen of McMahon firing passes and Ditka throwing his headset and anything not bolted to the ground as his quarterback ignored the plays sent in by his coach. The same phenomenon occurred in Miami, in the only game that the Bears lost that season. Coach would send in a pass play, and McMahon kept giving the ball to Walter Payton. Ditka finally asked his star what the hell he was doing. “Walter is close to setting a record of consecutive 100-yard games.” Ditka asked if that was true. When told that it was, he agreed with his QB and gave the ball to Sweetness as the game was lost, but they could at least help his running back set a record.
Donald Trump is determined to make a deal with the Iranians. One can easily argue as to whether making deals with serial liars is a good idea. That is for another column. The question today is simple: what happens when the president does not have control of all of the moving parts in the story? Winston Churchill famously said that the only thing worse than fighting with allies is fighting without them. It is not an easy task to get people, groups or countries on the same page when they all have different agendas. I always stand in amazement at Phil Jackson, another famous Chicago coach. People have carped that anyone with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant could win multiple NBA championships. What they don’t understand is that Phil Jackson perfected the art of making superstars play well together. When Jordan was alone, he scored 50 points a night, and the Bulls lost. When he had Scottie Pippen and other talent, he scored less, but the Bulls coalesced into a nearly unbeatable team.
I can say from the get-go that I am not privy to any secret information or transcripts of super-secret governmental discussions. All I can do is look out the window and try to figure out what is going on. There are many reports, true or otherwise, that Qatar and the UAE may be giving billions of dollars to Iran. In the Godfather, this would be known as protection money. And if true—and that is a big if—then it tells us a great deal of what the Gulf states are thinking. They have concluded a couple of things:
- Donald Trump does not plan to weaken the IRGC to the point of regime change
- The same lunatics running Iran for nearly 50 years will be in charge when the current war is over
- The Gulf states have incredibly exposed energy and other infrastructure that were easily damaged by Iranian drones and missiles
- With all of the above clear, they have decided that bribing Iran to not put them out of the oil and gas business is job one
Donald Trump is the most powerful leader in the world. What he and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth pulled off in Caracas is something that other world leaders couldn’t even begin to contemplate: grab a narco-politician in his pajamas and get him out of the country in less than an hour. The British admitted that they do not have the resources that the US deployed when it saved the second downed F-15 pilot in Iran. Even with all of this in mind, Donald Trump cannot control other countries completely. Sure, he has plenty of carrots and sticks at his disposal. It has been claimed that after Iran sent missiles into northern Israel, Donald Trump asked Bibi Netanyahu if anyone was killed. Bibi supposedly refused to have death alone as the driver for response: they attack us, we give it right back for a meaningful deterrent. And apparently it worked, as when the US hit Iran last week, Iran attacked Jordan, Kuwait, and others—but noticeably not Israel. Israel took a line right out of James Bond: “I never miss.”
If the Gulf states are paying protection money to the regime, then the latter can pay its fighters and keep Hezbollah armed and fighting. This is not a good development for the US or the world. But what can Donald Trump do? Call up Emir X or President Y and scream, "Don't give the Iranians money?" If the Iranians continue to be the Islamic regime and the Gulf states will have to live with them, then they would rather pay their way out of future attacks. It seemed that the Gulf countries were shocked when Iran hit them—especially Qatar, which is as evil as Iran in its Islamic goals but remembers to smile in front of the cameras. But they learned that their massive energy fields make easy and inviting targets for Iranian drones, which were ineffective against a distant Israel. They can’t move their pipes and processing plants underground into hardened bunkers. Even their attempts to use pipelines directed away from the Straits of Hormuz led to Iran bombing the same. These countries know that they cannot topple the mullahs and have now concluded that Donald Trump does not plan to either. They are hedging their bets and paying the murderers. Ditka couldn’t control McMahon. Trump can’t control a wealthy emir worried about his gas fields.
I know that people below will say that Trump can’t rein in Israel either. It’s not a bad argument, but as percentages go, Israel has, on at least three occasions, of which I am aware, stopped bombing Iran when Donald Trump told them to stop. That number includes last week when Israel had a third strike package lined up, and Donald Trump told Bibi, “Enough!’ And Israel stopped. Because of the close relationship between the US and Israel and the huge financial support from America, Israel does not readily defy its friend and benefactor. When the Israelis bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor, the US officially denounced the move. Ronald Reagan famously said, “Boys will be boys.” He held up some F-16s in protest.
It’s hard for me to imagine any deal that would be good for the United States. We can see that the Iranians post their fantasy deal of tons of money and the US leaving the region, and then claim that these are Donald Trump’s terms. When the president has to refute the Iranian lies, he is already starting on his back feet. I know that the US won’t leave and that there will be no sanctions relief until Iran does certain things that the president is demanding. But with the Gulf states possibly paying Iran oodles of dough, Iran might not feel so much pressure to oblige. Sure, it can’t load oil and send a tanker, but Kuwait and the UAE will give it billions just not to shoot at their energy production facilities. If Iran gets mad, it could fire off a drone to remind them that she reserves the right to raise the price or change the terms of the deal. The Gulf leaders are right to assume that the mullahs and IRGC are set to rule for another couple of dozen years. The people were not armed, and the regime was not hit hard enough to make it wobble into ruin. The US owes nothing to anybody other than US citizens. The Gulf countries have learned the same.