Americans know how consequential elections can be for both domestic and foreign policy. Likewise, Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary election on June 7 is critical to the future of the country, the Caucasus, and a major Trump Administration initiative, the Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The stakes for Armenia could not be higher. This election will determine whether Armenia remains a Russian satellite advancing Moscow’s interests rather than its own, or becomes an independent, Westward-looking state approaching EU membership. A Westward trajectory serves the interests of both Armenia and America and would solidify one of the Trump Administration’s strategic achievements.
The stark choices confronting the Armenian people go even further. If voters elect the Moscow clients challenging Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government, they will renounce the peace and prosperity inherent in a turn toward Europe and instead embrace a policy of retaliation against Azerbaijan and Turkey. In other words, they will be voting for a future of continued violence and national poverty. However, if the voters support Pashinyan, Armenia will be able to conclude peace with Azerbaijan, balance against its relationship with Moscow, champion trade, and boost the national economy by facilitating the TRIPP’s potential to become a vital link in the growing transcontinental trade connecting Central and East Asia with the Caucasus and Europe.
Naturally, Russia, which is already losing ground in both the Caucasus and Central Asia, is trying to subvert this election. Besides threatening that Armenia will suffer Ukraine’s fate if it continues growing closer to Europe, Moscow has organized influence operations that are standard fare coming from the Kremlin. Russia intervened in the U.S. 2016 and 2020 elections, as well as elections in Spain, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Russia also subsidizes the populist right-wing parties Alternative for Germany and National Rally in France. So, the stakes in Armenia are enormous—war or peace, illiberalism or democracy.
Pashinyan’s government has made significant progress toward democratizing Armenia and making peace with Azerbaijan. Due to its defeat in the Karabakh wars in 2020 and 2023, Armenia’s government realized that Russia is a faithless partner that can no longer assure Armenian security and will, if necessary, betray it. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Türkey are both developing economic ties with Armenia.
A final peace settlement with Azerbaijan can only happen if Armenia’s new legislature, empowered by the June 7 elections, is able to address the necessary constitutional changes. Equally importantly, Armenia has begun serious negotiations with Brussels about entering the EU. In an historic first, Yerevan just hosted the May 4 meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), and on May 5, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa held the first-ever EU-Armenia summit, issuing a joint declaration. The EU reaffirmed its steadfast commitment to further strengthening relations with Armenia and its long-term development by bringing Armenia and its people closer to the European Union. The EU likewise supported Armenia’s willingness to align with the EU’s Acquis (membership requirements).
Sadly, this program of peace, Europeanization, and democracy is anathema to Russia and its partisans in Armenia. As a Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center paper aptly noted, “Russia Won’t Give Up Its Influence in Armenia Without a Fight.” In 2024-25, Moscow, working with Armenian revanchists, the Armenian church, and the opposition, was caught planning a coup. Such efforts to exploit domestic cleavages led by pro-Moscow oligarchs and Russian agents typify Moscow’s modus operandi. The present intervention against Pashinyan’s government is part of a broader Russian strategy to maintain control over the South Caucasus and Armenia, protect the bridge to Iran, and derail emerging peace in the region.
Beyond manipulating a network of oligarchs, corrupt former officials, and proxies to undermine Pashinyan’s peace-seeking government, Russia also appears to utilize foreign dignitaries to do its bidding. Ukrainian intelligence discovered materials showing that Luis Moreno Ocampo, former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, and his son Thomas are working with Armenian American lobbyists at the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) and some members of the European Parliament to organize campaigns aimed at ousting Pashinyan and besmirching Azerbaijan. Their activities coincide with Russian interests to restore Kremlin allies like Robert Kocharyan and his circle to power and obtain the release of the pro-Russian leader of Armenian separatists in Karabakh, Ruben Vardanyan. Both Ocampos have outlined plans on audio and video materials to foment “major unrest in Armenia” and topple Pashinyan.
Ocampo even boasted that he can exert pressure on EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen, “and in that way tweak European policy,” working through the Spanish politician and former High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, Josep Borrell. In the video of his leaked interview, Ocampo concludes, we’re getting onto a road that’s already been paved. We pile on more pressure, and I’m going to do it in combination with the Armenian lobby in the United States…I don’t have to break down the wall—the door is already open and we just push in.”
Concurrently coordinated disinformation campaigns and hybrid attacks are targeting Azerbaijan to sabotage the peace agenda. Armenian lobbyists are actively working to prevent the normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan and obstruct the peace process, both in the EU and in the U.S. By sending European leaders to the May summit with Armenia to counter Russian influence, the EU clearly signaled that it has seen through Russia’s game. Moscow aims to block not just peace but also democracy and President Trump’s plan for regional trade, connectivity, and prosperity. In the Caucasus, as in Europe, the Kremlin is conducting war using all available tools in the statecraft toolbox. It must be stopped to uphold not only Armenia’s democracy, but also a strategically important regional peace, prosperity, and critical U.S. interests.