Something has changed with the Lebanese terror group. They don’t want a full-blown war with Israel, and the question is why.
Hezbollah has always been a terror group in a class of its own. It has 100,000 rockets, tens of thousands of highly-trained fighters, and operations in South America (drug running) and Europe (where they killed Israeli tourists). They are fully supported by Iran, and when Iranians rioted against the regime, Hezbollah members came to the aid of the mullahs. Israel fled southern Lebanon in 2006 after repeated ambushes, IEDs, and kidnappings. Israelis were mostly terrified of Hezbollah.
But something has happened to the terror group of late. It is behaving more like a Fortune 500 company than a ruthless paramilitary gang. Take for example the recent killing of Mohammed Nasser, a senior commander in the group. Hezbollah followed up by sending 200 rockets and 20 drones into northern Israel. It then announced that it had finished its response to the assassination. Why would they say that they are finished? Why wouldn’t they keep their options open to fire more projectiles? Why would they take the terror out of a terror group? One must note that Iran did the same after a tepid response to the vaporization of General Suleimani. They immediately announced that they had finished their “revenge” out of fear that Trump might wax somebody else.
Or what of Hezbollah’s number 2, Naim Qassem, telling a Russian outlet that there is no chance of a full-blown war with Israel? He did not say that maybe there is a 5 or 10 percent chance; no, he said point-blank that there will be no war. Hezbollah for decades has not stopped talking about destroying the Zionist enemy, fighting the IDF, taking control of northern Israel, etc. Now, when there are daily volleys of missiles, rockets, and drones between the two sides, the second-highest official makes it a point to say that there will be no wider war. Again, why?
There were many conflicting reports about Hezbollah’s supposed participation on 10/7 in attacking Israel. Some claimed that there was to be a coordinated invasion from both the north and south, paralyzing Israel and the IDF. Hezbollah has claimed that it only knew of the attack after it started, something that is very hard to believe when Iran was involved in planning and financing the invasion, and both Hamas and Hezbollah are clients of Iran. Since the war began, Hezbollah has been firing rockets, suicide drones, and anti-tank missiles at Israeli targets. They clearly have very good intelligence as they have on a couple of occasions hit unmarked buildings that were hosting large numbers of soldiers, many of whom were injured. When there was a ceasefire, Hezbollah stopped all attacks. It has again stated that during any future ceasefire in the south, they will stop all attacks from the north. That seems odd; why are they in such a hurry to stop the fighting? As they have always relished attacking Jews, why should they be working on Hamas’ timetable?
I believe that Hezbollah’s reluctance to expand the fighting and their determination to avoid a broader war is related to the group’s standing in Lebanon today. Gone is the gritty fighting Shiites of old; today, Hezbollah is a huge company, one that controls Lebanon’s political and economic future. It tells the Lebanese army where to deploy and what to do. Hezbollah, while dedicated to fighting Israel, has become a central political player in Lebanon and the Arab world. I believe that Hassan Nassrallah, the general secretary of the group, has transitioned into becoming a CEO of a multinational, multi-billion dollar organization. He realizes that total war with Israel, which will involve thousands of plane and drone sorties sent around the clock to destroy weapons his depots, command centers and the like, would be the end of his lucrative organization and personal power. Thus, he halfheartedly fires rockets and drones to please his Iranian overmasters and Hamas “brothers”, but he does not want war. War will be the end of him and his organization. As he controls all aspects of Lebanon’s politics and infrastructure, war would be very bad for business.
There are additional factors at play here. The large Christian population does not like Hezbollah or its making Lebanon into an Iranian vassal state. Some Christian groups would happily take up arms in parallel with a full-blown Israeli attack. Additionally, Hezbollah’s men fought hard in Syria and lost many comrades. To date, they are sitting ducks for Israeli aerial and artillery attacks. If Hezbollah is not going to attack Israel outright, they must wonder how much longer they are going to be blown up in static positions. To date, the organization has announced the death of around 400 of its men—more than they lost during the entire Second Lebanon War of 2006.
I still do not pretend to know if there will be a full-scale war in the north. Though both Israel and Hezbollah have made noises to the effect that they do not want war, they may stumble into one anyway. Israel needs to return 50,000 people to their abandoned homes in the north. They will not want to go home based on Nasrallah’s word only. On the other hand, if Hezbollah stops firing for some number of days, will Israel’s left demand that the army not attack, now that the enemy has ceased its hostile actions? The Israeli president, prime minister, and chief of staff have all recently appeared in the north to say that they will deal with the Hezbollah threat after Gaza is under control. Words are one thing, bullets another. In parallel, Hezbollah has been showing off its automatic rocket systems, while at the same time claiming that there will be no wider war.
Will Israel attack to destroy Hezbollah or will it rely on deterrence alone? Will Hezbollah value its empire over its reputation for tough fighting? Will it keep sending out messages that it will stop its attacks and that there will be no wider war? As Israel finishes up in Rafah and moves to a post-war posture, all eyes will be on Lebanon. There are currently 150,000 Israeli troops on the Lebanese border. Will Israel move men and material to the border and will it start an intensive bombing campaign to neuter Hezbolah’s rocket arsental? As they used to say on TV, stay tuned.