Forecasts for the Weeks of February 9 and 16

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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of February 9
February 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January	100.8	100.4	101.0
JOLTS - December	4.98	4.972	4.975
Wholesale Inventories - December	0.1%	0.8	0.1
Wholesale Sales	-0.3
February 11
Treasury Budget - January	-$18.2B	1.9	-18.5
February 12
Initial Unemployment Claims	285K	278	288
Retail Sales - January	-0.5%	-0.9	-0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos	5	-1.0	-0.5
Business Inventories - December	0.2%	0.2	0.2
February 13
Export Prices - February	-0.8%	-1.2	-0.8
Import Prices	-3.3	-2.5	-3.00
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)	98.4	98.1	98.5
Week of February 16
February 16
NY Fed Manufacturing Index	9.0	9.95	8.0
February 17
NAHB Index - February	58	57	58
February 18
Producer Price Index - January	-0.4%	-0.3	-0.4
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)	0.1	0.1	0.1
Housing Starts - January	1.060M	1.080	1.070
Building Permits	1.060	1.032	1.060
Industrial Production - January	0.3%	-0.1	0.4
Capacity Utilization	79.9	79.7	79.9
Manufacturing Output	0.3	0.3	0.3
February 19
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index	53.4	53.9
Philadelphia Fed Survey	9	6.3	8.5
Leading Indicators - January	0.3%	0.6	0.4
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.