Forecasts for the Weeks of February 9 and 16

Peter Morici
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Posted: Feb 09, 2015 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of February 9
February 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January 100.8 100.4 101.0
JOLTS - December 4.98 4.972 4.975
Wholesale Inventories - December 0.1% 0.8 0.1
Wholesale Sales -0.3
February 11
Treasury Budget - January -$18.2B 1.9 -18.5
February 12
Initial Unemployment Claims 285K 278 288
Retail Sales - January -0.5% -0.9 -0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos 5 -1.0 -0.5
Business Inventories - December 0.2% 0.2 0.2
February 13
Export Prices - February -0.8% -1.2 -0.8
Import Prices -3.3 -2.5 -3.00
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) 98.4 98.1 98.5
Week of February 16
February 16
NY Fed Manufacturing Index 9.0 9.95 8.0
February 17
NAHB Index - February 58 57 58
February 18
Producer Price Index - January -0.4% -0.3 -0.4
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) 0.1 0.1 0.1
Housing Starts - January 1.060M 1.080 1.070
Building Permits 1.060 1.032 1.060
Industrial Production - January 0.3% -0.1 0.4
Capacity Utilization 79.9 79.7 79.9
Manufacturing Output 0.3 0.3 0.3
February 19
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index 53.4 53.9
Philadelphia Fed Survey 9 6.3 8.5
Leading Indicators - January 0.3% 0.6 0.4
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.