| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of November 3 | |||
| November 3 | |||
| Auto Sales* - October | 16.75M | 16.44 | 16.60 |
| Car Sales | 7.88 | 7.75 | |
| Truck Sales | 8.87 | 8.69 | |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - October | 57.0 | 57.5 | 56.1 |
| ISM (Mfg) - October | 56.6 | 56.6 | 56.0 |
| Construction Spending - September | 0.7% | -0.8 | 0.6 |
| November 4 | |||
| International Trade - September | -$41.0 | -40.1 | -40.7 |
| Factory Orders - September | -0.6% | -10.1 | -0.7 |
| Durable Goods Orders | -1.3 | -18.4 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.1 | -0.4 | |
| November 5 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - October | 205K | 213 | 230 |
| ISM Services - October | 57.6 | 58.6 | 58.0 |
| November 6 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 280K | 287 | 283 |
| Productivity - Q3 (p) | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| November 7 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - October | 215K | 248 | 240 |
| Private | 205 | 236 | 235 |
| Manufacturing | 8 | 4 | 5 |
| Unemployment | 5.9% | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Average Workweek | 34.6HR | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Consumer Credit - September | $20.0B | 13.5 | 15.4 |
| Week of November 10 | |||
| November 12 | |||
| NFIB Business Optimism Index - October | 95.3 | ||
| Wholesale Inventories - September | 0.3% | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| November 13 | |||
| JOLTS - September | 4.835 | ||
| Treasury Budget - October | -$130.0B | 105.8 | |
| November 14 | |||
| Retail Sales - October | 0.1% | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (p) | 86.9 | 86.9 | 87 |
| Business Inventories - August | 0.2% | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Export Prices -October | -0.2% | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Import Prices | -1.8 | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. | |||
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