Forecasts for the Weeks of November 3 and 10

Peter Morici
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Posted: Nov 03, 2014 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
ForecastPrior ObservationConsensus
Week of November 3
November 3
Auto Sales* - October16.75M16.4416.60
Car Sales7.887.75
Truck Sales8.878.69
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
PMI Manufacturing Index - October57.057.556.1
ISM (Mfg) - October56.656.656.0
Construction Spending - September0.7%-0.80.6
November 4
International Trade - September-$41.0-40.1-40.7
Factory Orders - September-0.6%-10.1-0.7
Durable Goods Orders -1.3-18.4
Nondurable Goods Orders 0.1-0.4
November 5
ADP Employment Report - October205K213230
ISM Services - October57.658.658.0
November 6
Initial Unemployment Claims280K287283
Productivity - Q3 (p)1.52.31.5
Unit Labor Costs-0.5-0.10.8
November 7
Nonfarm Payrolls - October215K248240
Private205236235
Manufacturing845
Unemployment5.9%5.95.9
Average Workweek34.6HR34.634.6
Average Hourly Earnings0.2%0.00.2
Consumer Credit - September$20.0B13.515.4
Week of November 10
November 12
NFIB Business Optimism Index - October95.3
Wholesale Inventories - September0.3%0.7-0.1
November 13
JOLTS - September4.835
Treasury Budget - October-$130.0B105.8
November 14
Retail Sales - October0.1%-0.30.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos0.0-0.20.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (p)86.986.987
Business Inventories - August0.2%0.20.2
Export Prices -October-0.2%-0.2-0.2
Import Prices-1.8-0.5-1.1
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.