Forecasts for the Weeks of November 3 and 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of November 3
November 3
Auto Sales* - October	16.75M	16.44	16.60
Car Sales	7.88	7.75
Truck Sales	8.87	8.69
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
PMI Manufacturing Index - October	57.0	57.5	56.1
ISM (Mfg) - October	56.6	56.6	56.0
Construction Spending - September	0.7%	-0.8	0.6
November 4
International Trade - September	-$41.0	-40.1	-40.7
Factory Orders - September	-0.6%	-10.1	-0.7
Durable Goods Orders	-1.3	-18.4
Nondurable Goods Orders	0.1	-0.4
November 5
ADP Employment Report - October	205K	213	230
ISM Services - October	57.6	58.6	58.0
November 6
Initial Unemployment Claims	280K	287	283
Productivity - Q3 (p)	1.5	2.3	1.5
Unit Labor Costs	-0.5	-0.1	0.8
November 7
Nonfarm Payrolls - October	215K	248	240
Private	205	236	235
Manufacturing	8	4	5
Unemployment	5.9%	5.9	5.9
Average Workweek	34.6HR	34.6	34.6
Average Hourly Earnings	0.2%	0.0	0.2
Consumer Credit - September	$20.0B	13.5	15.4
Week of November 10
November 12
NFIB Business Optimism Index - October	95.3
Wholesale Inventories - September	0.3%	0.7	-0.1
November 13
JOLTS - September	4.835
Treasury Budget - October	-$130.0B	105.8
November 14
Retail Sales - October	0.1%	-0.3	0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.0	-0.2	0.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (p)	86.9	86.9	87
Business Inventories - August	0.2%	0.2	0.2
Export Prices -October	-0.2%	-0.2	-0.2
Import Prices	-1.8	-0.5	-1.1
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.